SBK Edge Rush: Start of December solidifies four clear groups in the NFL

The playoff race is picking up pace as we roll into December, and there are some crucial match-ups this weekend that may prove to be influential in the final reckoning. 

As usual there are four groups of teams at this stage of proceedings. The top tier are locks for the playoffs, barring something extraordinary happening – step forward the 10-1 Eagles, the 9-2 Chiefs, and three teams at 8-3: the Bills, Dolphins and Cowboys. 

Next up are the likely crew. You can heavily pencil in the Buccaneers, despite their 5-6 record, by virtue of the NFC South being the worst division in football, along with the fact that their defence is starting to hum. They’ve got the G.O.A.T, and enough talent to get over the line. Indeed, despite their indifference, I still feel they will be a dangerous foe come playoff time, although they may well have a road game against Dallas to deal with in the Wild Card round, assuming Philly locks down the (NFC) East. 

The 49ers should be fine. They have a fascinating match-up with Miami this weekend, pitting Mike McDaniel’s explosive offence against one of the best defences in the NFL - a team that is led by the first-year Miami Head Coach’s former boss, Kyle Shanahan. We love a protégé vs master scenario. 

San Francisco may statistically look like a middle of the pack offence – but don’t be fooled by surface-level stats. The return of Deebo Samuel, the addition of Christian McCaffrey, and the incisive offensive styling of Shanahan means they may possess the most deceptive record in football right now at 7-4. 

Speaking of deceptive records, the Vikings are not a convincing 9-2 side. Nevertheless, they need just two wins from their remaining schedule - they play the 7-4 Jets this weekend, but games against Detroit, Indy, Green Bay, the New York Giants and Chicago should be straightforward enough. 

The Titans are in the same camp as Tampa Bay – not wholly convincing, but likely to make the cut, because the rest of the AFC South is a mess. But with a tough spot against Philly this weekend, they could drop to 7-5 and make their run-in that little bit nervier. 

Group three are those teams that are scrapping for playoff relevancy - some more successfully than others. The 7-4 Bengals, who take on Kansas City this weekend in an expected shootout off the back of last season’s successes against their AFC rivals, have both Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon back, and should be fine. 

Joe Burrow: will hope his Cincinnati Bengals offence will continue to fire with Ja'Marr Chase back

Conversely, the Jets, who are currently in possession of the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, have an identity crisis at quarterback and will learn a lot this weekend in their match against Minnesota. They have a top five defence, but it may not be enough to see them home in a hyper-competitive division.

That is the same issue that is plaguing their cross-town rivals, the Giants, who are starting to fade after a mightily impressive start to Brian Daboll’s first season. If teams can quieten Saquon, plan B isn’t readily available. The Washington Commanders, a divisional rival and a team trending in an upward trajectory, have the front to keep New York’s ground game in check, and a win this weekend when the two sides square off could spell big trouble for Big Blue. 

Seattle, who sit at 6-5, have a similar story to the Giants. They are another surprise package that is beginning to falter, although facing the Aaron Donald-less Rams this Sunday should see them re-up. 

A listener fired in a question for my podcast this week – The Nat Coombs Show, available on all good podcatchers! – regarding the Ravens being the most confusing team in the NFL. At 7-4, they’ve blown multiple double-digit leads, and most of those watching on are struggling to determine if they’re legit or frauds. A soft spot against a woeful Broncos this weekend will do little to solidify their credentials if they win, although a loss against the league's 32nd ranked offence would magnify concerns. 

New Orleans Saints: have struggled this year and look out of the playoff race

The final group is the also-rans. This contains teams that show flashes – Lions, Falcons et al – but can’t piece enough rhythm together, alongside those that are dead and buried. Include the Cardinals, Bears, Saints and Texans in that last sub-category. 

For these teams, the final few weeks of the season become a grind. Players try to do enough to keep a gig (or earn one elsewhere), coaches ditto, with no hope of a post-season, and very little else to look forward to. Intriguingly, if the Broncos, who fired their head coach Nathaniel Hackett this week, keep losing, they’ll be in pole position for a high-round draft pick. Will they take one of the very talented quarterbacks and move on from the lacklustre Russell Wilson?