NFL Week 12 Tips: San Francisco set to cover the spread against the Saints

The 2022 NFL season is as competitive as ever and multiple teams still have a realistic chance of making the postseason. Here, expert Tom Collins offers his week 12 predictions.

Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) @ Washington Commanders (-4.5)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday GMT

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to run against this Washington Commanders defence. They gave up just 38 rushing yards against Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon of the Packers in week seven, kept Jonathan Taylor to 76 yards on 16 carries in week eight, the Vikings gained just 56 yards on 22 carries in week nine, and the Texans managed just 21 rushing yards on 16 attempts in week 11. The Commanders are also the only side to keep the Philadelphia Eagles under 100 rushing yards in a game - and they have done it twice this season!

They have won five of their last six games and now face the Atlanta Falcons, a team that relies on running the ball to win. Even more focus will be on their ground game now that star tight end Kyle Pitts has been moved to injured reserve. And, if they can’t get Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson going, this could easily become a blowout.

The Commanders offence is starting to find its rhythm and, with a powerful two-pronged attack in the backfield, Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas making plays deep, and Taylor Heinicke finding his groove, Washington should take advantage of a poor Falcons defence and win this game comfortably.

Prediction: Washington Commanders -4.5 @ 1.91

Denver Broncos (-2) @ Carolina Panthers (+2)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday GMT

The line for this game opened with the Broncos as 2.5-point favourites, but the number has now come down by half a point and rightly so given this figures to be a really close game. 

If you’re thinking about backing the Denver Broncos, remember that they have only scored more than 16 points twice this year. I would happily put my money where my mouth is by saying that they won’t be top that number against Carolina’s talented defence, either. Denver are also 1-4 on the road, and have lost six one-score games this season. They just can’t get it done.

Carolina’s issues have been at quarterback, but Sam Darnold, who is fresh off injured reserve, will get a crack this week and he can’t do much worse than Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker. Maybe his addition will be the spark this offence needs, and therefore I’m happy to back them with a two-point advantage.

Prediction: Carolina Panthers +2 @ 1.91

New Orleans Saints (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday GMT

The San Francisco 49ers are capable of a long playoff push this season. They have really turned a corner thanks to putting Jimmy Garoppolo back at quarterback following the unfortunate injury to Trey Lance, as well as the addition of Christian McCaffrey and the new-found health of their defence. They were dominant in their Mexico City victory over the Cardinals on Monday and match up well against this Saints team.

The Saints have struggled all year - even star running back Alvin Kamara is finding it tough sledding! Rookie wide receiver Chris Olave has been their offensive standout, along with the versatile Taysom Hill, but they have generally struggled to put up points in every game so far.

Veteran quarterback Andy Dalton seems to still be in favour over Jameis Winston, which I don’t necessarily agree with, and he’s going to be under serious pressure this week from this 49ers defensive line. 

The Saints are by far the worst team in the league in terms of turnover differential at -12, and they certainly won’t want to give up the ball here. Meanwhile, the 49ers defence has allowed the fewest yards per game. This figures to be a blowout, and I’ll happily take them -9.5 on the handicap.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -9.5 @ 1.91

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Washington Commanders -4.5 @ 1.91
Carolina Panthers +2 @ 1.91
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 @ 1.91

Accumulator odds: 6.97 decimal, 5.97-1 fractional