NFL Week 4 Betting Tips: Tom Collins looks for elusive full house after winners last week

How ‘bout those Dolphins? Posting 70 points - yes, you read that right - against the Broncos on Sunday was some feat and they are certainly the hottest team in the league through the first three weeks.

While Miami stole the show, the Broncos, Vikings, Bears and Panthers slumped to three consecutive losses to begin the year. Since 1990, just four out of 158 teams who began 0-3 went on to make the playoffs. If they want to buck that trend, those franchises need to kickstart a winning sequence this weekend.

Talking of this weekend, let’s get into the picks. Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown, Over 47.5 points in the Chiefs/Bears game, and Bengals -2 gave us three winners from four selections in the column last week, but I’m ready to improve that strike-rate.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday BST

After losing to the Browns and Ravens, the Cincinnati Bengals bounced back to winning ways by defeating the LA Rams 19-16 on Monday night. Quarterback Joe Burrow looked lighter on his feet - the calf injury seems to be getting a bit better - and he kept things simple by constantly feeding star receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who recorded 12 catches for 141 yards. Their defence stood up to the test too, but that unit hasn’t let anyone down this year.

One day earlier, the Tennessee Titans stunk up the gaff in Cleveland by amassing just 94 total yards on offence - a number that included a measly 20 rushing yards from 15 carries for running back Derrick Henry. If their star player cannot run the rock, they are going to be in serious trouble moving forward.

I expect him to do far better this week, but not well enough to carry the Titans to victory. These two teams faced off in week 12 last year and the Bengals won 20-16 despite playing without Joe Mixon and the aforementioned Chase. Both of those guys, as well as a revitalised Tee Higgins, will be in the line-up this week so another road victory in Tennessee looks likely.

Prediction: Bengals -2.5 @ 10/11

Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday BST

Backing over 47.5 total points in this match-up could be the wise play. The Chargers are giving up 29 points per game yet boast one of the best offences in the league, so regular trips to the endzone for both teams appears probable. With that being said, I prefer the price available for a Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown.

A quick look at the 2023 stats may deter you from this pick - Las Vegas has amassed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league and Jacobs is yet to record a touchdown this season. However, this match-up has been historically favourable for the Alabama alumni. In six games against the Chargers since August 2020, Jacobs has totalled 514 rushing yards (average of 86 per game) and four touchdowns. 

Furthermore, the Chargers will be keen to double cover Raiders receiver Davante Adams and therefore allow more space for the rushing game to work. As a result, Jacobs can continue his good record and finally add a score to his seasonal tally.

Prediction: Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown @ 5/6

Arizona Cardinals (+14) @ San Francisco 49ers (-14)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday BST

This game should be more one-sided than a race between Usain Bolt and myself. The 49ers have been dominant so far this term and, although the Cardinals posted a shock victory against the Cowboys last weekend, the lack of talent on their roster won’t allow that on a regular basis. I just don’t like backing teams with a 14-point deficit on the spread as that number can often cause voided or pushed bets. 

It’s back to the ‘anytime touchdown’ market here and I’m staring down George Kittle to get the job done. This just feels like a game in which the Iowa product will prove to be quarterback Brock Purdy’s safety blanket. He might have Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to lean on, but Kittle provides a short-to-mid option on every passing down and that shouldn’t be overlooked.

Kittle scored four touchdowns in two games against the Cardinals last year - that should be enough to tempt you to join me on this bet.

Prediction: George Kittle anytime touchdown @ 12/5

Recommended Bets

Bengals @ Titans: Bengals -2.5 @ 10/11
Raiders @ Chargers: Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown @ 5/6
Cardinals @ 49ers: George Kittle anytime touchdown @ 12/5

Accumulator pays 21/2