Monday MLB Betting Tips: Brewers lead on Monday night picks

18 September 2023

Into the final couple of weeks of the MLB season, there’s still plenty to play for in both leagues. Monday night brings us 11 games to choose from – here are our three best bets from this evening’s action… 

Nationals v White Sox

First pitch: 12:05am Tuesday

The Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox are two of the three worst offences over the last fortnight by wRC+. Washington has mustered only a 63 wRC+ over that span, and has scored three or fewer runs in four of their last six.

Chicago haven't been much better. They were shutout by the Twins on Sunday, making it two or fewer runs scored in four of their last five. Their numbers have been abysmal across the board all year, with Luis Robert Jr. being their only consistently above-average hitter.

Mike Clevinger, owner of a sub-four ERA, takes the ball for the ChiSox, matching up with Joan Adon. Adon might have a 5.92 ERA, but his underlying metrics are a bit closer to league average. 

Both of the bullpens have struggled over the last month, with each ranking in the bottom-10 in ERA. That’s why we’re steering clear of the under for the entire game and focusing solely on the first five innings.

These two line ups are both in the bottom eight in runs scored in the first five innings this season. We can’t see either of these offences getting too much going early on despite Adon’s season-long numbers. 

Prediction: Under 4.5 runs in the first five innings @ 1.99

Cardinals v Brewers

First pitch: 12:45am Tuesday

This National League Central duel looked set for a divisional showdown when the schedule was released. Instead, the Brewers are cruising towards another division title and hence they are playing out the season. 

Adam Wainwright, desperately in pursuit of his 200th win, takes the ball for the Cards. Wainwright got just his fourth win of the campaign last time out, amid an all-time calamitous campaign for the veteran. He’s posted a -2.4 bWAR and an ERA a shade below eight, with the Cardinals losing 14 of his 20 outings.

Milwaukee sends Freddy Peralta to the bump. Peralta has had an excellent year, pitching to a 3.22 xERA, and leads a Brewers ballclub on a 10-6 run. Their offence might be their weakness, but they should be able to put up a few runs against Wainwright and a poor Cardinals bullpen.

We expect the Milwaukee relief corps to backup Peralta for a comfortable win here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ 1.95

Astros v Orioles

First pitch: 01:10am Tuesday

John Means makes his second start since returning from injury on Monday night. Means matches up with a white-hot Houston Astros offence and Justin Verlander. Houston has by far the best wRC+ in the Majors over the last two weeks at 148. 

Baltimore’s offence ranks seventh over that period after producing 13 runs across their two weekend games. Means was okay and nothing more in his first start back – Baltimore will inevitably be very cautious with his workload here.

The Orioles will fancy their chances against Verlander. The veteran has a 5.40 ERA over his three September starts, including giving up five runs on eight hits to the lowly Athletics in his previous appearance.

Only three teams have hit the over more often than the Orioles in 2023. There’s great value here.

Prediction: Over 8.5 total runs @ 1.85

Recommended Bets

Back under 4.5 runs in first five innings in Nationals v White Sox @ 1.99
Back Milwaukee Brewers - 1.5 @ 1.95
Back over 8.5 runs in Astros v Orioles @ 1.85

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