NFL Week 12 Tips: Don’t trust Desmond in crucial NFC South divisional match-up

Thanksgiving provided its customary thrills and spills from the National Football League as the Packers surprised the Lions, the Cowboys came out on top against the Commanders, and Christian McCaffrey shone for the 49ers.

Although we have the unusual scenario of being four games down by the time we come to Sunday, there are still 11 exciting and enticing match-ups for punters to consider for inclusion in their accas. Below are the three most attractive and simple wagers at fair prices. 

New Orleans Saints (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday BST

The Atlanta Falcons have confirmed that Desmond Ridder will be under centre moving forward. The second-year quarterback has already started seven games this year, but was benched for journeyman Taylor Heinicke in late October on the back of a loss to the Tennessee Titans. Despite playing some inspired football when given the chance, Heinicke suffered a hamstring injury against the Cardinals two weeks ago and has now lost his starting place.

It’s pretty hard to trust Ridder, who has thrown six touchdowns and six interceptions on the year while being sacked a total of 25 times. His indecision in the pocket has cost his team a couple of games and, although he’s a threat when running the ball, this offence can become very one dimensional with him at the helm. 

The last thing the Falcons need coming out of the bye week is to play the Saints, who boast a top-10 defence that thrives on quarterback mistakes. The Saints have three road wins (New England, Carolina and Indianapolis) this year and only lost by one score against the Texans, Packers and Vikings. With Derek Carr ready to return to action and Chris Olave finding some form, expect the Saints to win a defensive battle.

Prediction: Saints -1.5 @ 10/11

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2) @ Houston Texans (+2)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday BST

Both of these teams are riding the wave at the moment. The Jags have won six of their last seven games and frankly destroyed the Titans seven days ago, while the Texans have been revived by rookies CJ Stroud and Tank Dell and sit just one game behind their aforementioned rivals in the AFC South.

In what could be an extremely important clash in the race to win the division, I’m backing Stroud’s elite poise in the pocket to lift his Texans over the line. The Ohio State product has thrown 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions on the year so far, while mustering 2,962 passing yards and a further two rushing touchdowns. He has been one of the brightest sparks in the league to date and, with running back Devin Singletary finally helping him out last week, this offence looks pretty hard to stop.

It is also interesting to note that the Jaguars have generally struggled against the Texans in recent years, losing 10 of their last 11 games which includes a 37-17 home defeat earlier this season. That streak can continue with another Houston victory on Sunday, but play the points spread for safety.

Prediction: Texans +2 @ 10/11

Buffalo Bills (+3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday BST

Game of the week, right? The confusing Buffalo Bills, who surprisingly boast a record of 5-5, head to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team fresh off the back of comeback win against Kansas City. Despite the away team’s record this term, this is a match-up many will expect to see again late in the playoffs.

But for that to happen, Bills quarterback Josh Allen needs to throw the ball to his receivers and not opposing players. The big-armed signal caller leads the league with 12 interceptions - not a stat to be proud of - while equally remaining capable of completely running the show. Which Allen will turn up? That’s the big question.

Looking at their road form this year (one win from four games), perhaps we should expect the Bills to lose once again. But Allen always seems to play to the level of his opposition and Philly are pretty damn good. 

Many will hope for an offensive battle, but I can see this turning into a defensive scrap. The Bills have conceded just 17.3pts per game this year (fourth-best in the league), while the Eagles have shipped 21.2ppg. Both teams boast a depth of talent on defence, although the Bills’ injury list is pretty long right now, and marching down the field should be a stiff task.

The ‘Over/Under’ line in the Total Points market is set at 48.5, which seems pretty high on this year’s statistics and the fact that only one of the last eight match-ups between these two teams has seen 44 or more points being scored. Mark me down for the under.

Prediction: Under 48.5 total points @ 10/11

NFL Week 12 Tips

Saints @ Falcons: Saints -1.5 @ 10/11

Jaguars @ Texans: Texans +1.5 @ 10/11

Bills @ Eagles: Under 48.5 total points @ 10/11

Accumulator pays: 5.96/1