NBA Saturday Tips: Heavyweight bout between Embiid and Jokic promises plenty

The Denver Nuggets visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday and you can bet the two men in the middle will take centre stage in a battle for midseason supremacy.

Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Tipoff: 8pm Saturday GMT (Sky Sports Arena) 

One an All-Star starter, one a snub. Saturday’s primetime battle between arguably the two best bigs in the NBA is the epitome of a heavyweight bout. Nikola Jokic takes his West-leading Denver Nuggets to face the red-hot Sixers in Philadelphia. He who throws the mightiest punch against their centre counterpart will surely provide a knockout blow for their team. 

And, while Embiid was controversially left off the Eastern Conference’s quintet of All Star starters on Thursday, he can still bask in a six-game winning streak for Philly that was extended with a free-scoring defeat of the Nets.

That’s 11 victories in 13 for Philadelphia, during which they have averaged 121.7 points by an average margin of +5.3. In that spell only one team (Sacramento) has achieved a higher offensive rating. No wonder that they look very good value at 7.0 for the East title with Embiid an excellent 7.6 for MVP. 

The favourite for that crown remains Jokic with the markets giving the Serb star a 22% chance of a three-peat. And, although the Nuggets are leaning on a majestic home record, they have the second-highest scoring offense on the road at 116.5 points per contest and, more recently, the best net rating over their last 13 games. 

Denver is 20.8 points per 100 possessions with The Joker on the floor, but the consistency of Jamal Murray on his return from injury and Aaron Gordon’s all-round threat means James Harden and Tyrese Maxey will have worthy adversaries. 

Perhaps this will be a day when the Nuggets will want - or need - to grind it out. They have averaged 98.6 points over their last three, including two losses by eight or less. It’s tough to imagine such a low return here.

Prediction: Nuggets +1.5 @ 2.2

New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets

Tipoff: 10.30pm Saturday GMT (Sky Sports Arena) 

Saturday night, and a New York derby – enough star wattage to light up Broadway and a few skyscrapers beyond.

The Knicks’ playoff credentials look ever more legit following a terrific Thursday overtime triumph in Boston. The Nets, with Kevin Durant sidelined, look a little flat following a horrific loss to the lowly Pistons that followed a reverse to the Sixers. A sixth defeat in eight: Brooklyn’s bounce has lost its spring. 

And it’s their scoring that is drying up, averaging only 112.8 per game in that skid on a differential of -3.9 despite holding opponents to a mere 45.6% from the field. The Knicks have given up a league-best 44.5% from opposition shooting in their last eight games, making it mystifying that they have only gone 4-4 during a spell where their foes have been middling at best. 

Yet, New York only trails their city neighbours by three games. And with their defence built to constrain, the door is open to cut the Nets down to size – especially after winning their past two games this week by margins of just three and two. Knicks +2 makes sense, but I’ll take the under total points. 

Prediction: Under 220 points @ 2.6

Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics

Tipoff: 1.30am Sunday GMT

The NBA’s premier rivalry never fails to captivate, but there is not the lustre of past times. Boston, despite three successive losses, still holds the league’s best record at 35-15. 

Meanwhile, the LA Lakers are stuttering and suffocating and languish in 13th in the West – albeit a mere three wins behind New Orleans in fourth.

Even though the Cs swept the Lakers aside 122-118 last month, there is perhaps an opportunity for LeBron James and Co, who have won three out of four and are riding another wave from their veteran superstar. 

Boston will demand a response to their slump but, over four quarters, they are averaging just 101 points over their last three. More of that, and the Purple and Gold could leave their nemesis feeling Green. 

Prediction: Lakers +5 @ 2.24 

NBA Saturday Tips 

Denver @ Philadelphia: Nuggets +1.5 @ 2.2
New York @ Brooklyn: Under 220 points @ 2.6
Los Angeles @ Boston: Lakers +5 @ 2.24