NFL Conference Championship Tips: Take the over in Sunday’s late game

Four teams will become two as the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games take place this Sunday, and American football tipster Tom Collins provides his best bet in each encounter.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Kick-off: 8pm Sunday GMT

Predicting who would rock up in the NFC Conference Championship match wasn’t all that difficult. The Philadelphia Eagles, who boasted the number one seed thanks to a 14-3 regular season record, only had to take care of the New York Giants last week to progress, while the San Francisco 49ers predictably smashed the Seattle Seahawks and toughed out victory over the Dallas Cowboys to find themselves here.

This match-up features the only two teams in the NFC who have looked capable of winning this year’s Super Bowl. Both sides have a young quarterback at the helm, talented wide receivers, an elite tight end and a strong defensive unit. In fact, the 49ers and the Eagles topped the charts during the 2022 regular season for passing yards allowed (300.6 and 301.5 yards per game respectively), while they also ranked in the top five for offensive yardage.

Little splits these teams on numbers, which is why I’m surprised that the 49ers are 2.5pt underdogs. This team has won 12 straight games and boasts a fault-proof offensive gameplan that is yet to come unstuck, while the defence has regularly come up clutch in crucial situations. 

Given this game is played in Philly in front of a raucous crowd, the Eagles might start out hot and take a lead into the half. But expect the 49ers to come out firing in the latter stages - they have won the second half in 10 of their last 12 games and can rally to win this one.

Prediction: 49ers +2.5 @ 1.91

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kick-off: 11.30pm Sunday GMT

Make no mistake, this game is fraught with danger from a punting perspective. Sure to be a thrilling spectacle for the neutral, the AFC Conference Championship hinges on the severity of the injury to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high ankle sprain in their victory against Jacksonville last week.

Videos of Mahomes practicing without a care in the world recently emerged on social media, but he can’t be pain-free and completely mobile. Or can he? Such an important question without a clear answer provides a big worry for those looking to have a money line or point spread bet. If I was to take one team to progress, I’d lean on the Bengals in the hope that their defence can come up trumps.

However, the safer wager looks to be the over in the total points market. Cincinnati have looked streamlined, efficient and explosive on offence over the last few weeks, not least against the Buffalo Bills seven days ago in a 27-10 pounding. They have averaged just under 26 points per game this year, and a similar total looks likely given how porous the Chiefs defence can be.

Meanwhile, Kansas City averaged a league-high 29.1 points per game during the regular season and should remain free-scoring despite injury concerns to their talisman. Mahomes doesn’t need to be completely healthy to make plays. With the line set at just 48 points, taking the over looks the best play of the day.

Prediction: Over 48 points @ 1.91

NFL Conference Championship Tips

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles: 49ers +2.5 @ 1.91
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs: Over 48 points @ 1.91