NBA: Are the Boston Celtics worthy favourites?

We are just over a month into the NBA season and we have already seen our fair share of three pointers fly in, slam dunks and circus shots.

With all 30 teams having played between 15 and 19 games so far this season, we have got a good sample size to see who the runners and riders this season are going to be and more importantly how my predictions are looking at the moment.

Who is going to take home the chip?

Going into the season the Milwaukee Bucks (5.6), Boston Celtics (5.8) and the Denver Nuggets (6.6) led the betting and while the order has changed, it still looks likely to be one of these three teams that takes home the championship.

The Boston Celtics are top of the Eastern Conference with a 14-4 record and look incredibly strong at both ends of the floor. They are currently combining the eighth best offence and the fourth best defence. They also are number one in terms of point differential with +9.5. Adding Jrue Holiday to their roster has helped their perimeter defence a lot. When Holiday is on the floor with Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis there really is no defensive weakness. They faced up with the Bucks last Thursday and came out on top in 119-116. 

The offensive efficiency and fitness of Porzingis has been a major boost for the Cs, he is averaging a helpful 18.9 points a game and is shooting at 54.7%. 

At the moment, the Celtics are the title favourites at 4.8.

The Denver Nuggets were my pick before the season tipped off and I am more than happy to stick to that. They are at 6.8 at the moment, so have drifted slightly from where they were a month ago.

Their record stands at 12-6, but they have been missing point guard Jamal Murray, who has only played seven games this season. Murray’s partnership with Nikola Jokic was the main reason that the Nuggets won the title last season. Their two-man game, including pick and roll, was virtually unstoppable.

An injury to a star player can turn a team’s season on its head. While it is best to avoid betting on teams whose stars are particularly susceptible to spending time on the sidelines, you cannot legislate too much for these when making your picks.

The Bucks, who started the season at 5.6, have drifted out to 8.0. While the addition of Damian Lillard has made them more of a threat on the offensive end of the floor, losing Jrue Holiday has hurt them on D. They have the third best offence in the NBA averaging 120.9 points per game but they are seventh worst on the defensive end, giving up 117.5 ppg.

The saying goes that offence wins you matches but defence wins you championships, the Bucks will need to sort themselves out on that end of the floor if they want to be serious contenders.

The MVP Race

Nikola Jokic was the favourite before the season started (4.5) and his price has only got shorter thanks to a series of sensational performances to start the season. The Denver centre is averaging 29-13-9 on 56.8% shooting. The two-time MVP was incredible in last year’s postseason, becoming the first player to lead a finals in points, rebounds and assists. In doing so he became final’s MVP and took the crown of best player in the world. 

Without injury, I am sure he will win regular season MVP for the third time and at 2.76 the market agrees.

Luka Doncic, is second in the MVP race and can currently be found at 6.0. He is the third leading scorer in the league so far this season averaging 30.5 ppg. He is also sixth on the assist ranking at 7.5 per game so far. The Mavericks have started the season well and sit third in the western conference with a record of 11-6. 

The reigning MVP Joel Embiid, isn’t giving up his title without a fight and is currently at 7.8. Due to the pre-season turmoil involving James Harden, I didn’t think that Embiid or the 76ers had much hope of being good this year, but I was wrong. Tyrese Maxey has been handed the keys and combined with Embiid averaging a league high 32 ppg, the Sixers are fourth in the eastern conference. 

Rookie of the Year

We have a two horse race on our hands. Chet Holmgren’s excellent start to the season has seen him move into position as a narrow favourite at 1.74. French phenomenon Victor Wembenyama has also been incredibly impressive, but his San Antonio Spurs have the joint second-worst record in the league at 3-14. Wemby is still priced at 1.83, the third favourite is Ausar Thompson at 70.0.

Holmgren’s Oklahoma City Thunder are fifth in the west and look like they are ready to be a strong play-off team. You can see voters being swayed towards Holmgren because of his important role on a good team. As I predicted, this factor and injury were the only things stopping Wemby from winning the award and I stick by that.