Euro 2024 Group B Betting Guide: Who will progress from the group of death?

At every major tournament there is a group of death and at Euro 2024, Group B is that group.

Spain, Italy, Croatia and Albania will all battle it out for a place in the knockout stages.

In this article, we are going to take a look at each team in the group, assess their chances and identify a betting trend for each.

The Teams

Spain - 1.76

Spain finished top of their qualification group, with seven wins and one loss. Despite being known for their ball retention, passing and attacking flair, their success was built on the back of a strong defence. In their eight matches, they only conceded five goals and kept four clean sheets.

After opening their last World Cup campaign with a thrilling 7-0 win over Costa Rica, their tournament stuttered as they scraped through a tough group having drawn with Germany and lost to Japan. Their round of 16 loss to Morocco - albeit via penalties - was a shock and certainly not up to the standard the Spanish set themselves when their golden generation won Euro 2008, World Cup 2010 and Euro 2012 back to back. 

The old guard have been firmly banished now and coming through they have some of the best young talent in Europe from Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams going forward to Pau Cubrasi at the back. 

Star man: Rodri

The Manchester City star is one of the most complete players in Europe. He is great at protecting his back four when out of possession and then when in possession he has a great passing range and positional awareness. He also has the bonus of being a winning player, he hasn’t lost a football match in 90 minutes since Spain’s 2-0 loss to Scotland in March 2023. 

He has started adding goals to his game most notably when he scored the winner in the Champions League final last season. However, he is yet to add that string to his bowe for the national side though with only three in his 49 appearances.

One to watch: Lamine Yamal

The 16-year-old winger is the latest to come off the production line at La Masia, Barcelona’s youth academy. In his six matches, he has contributed two goals and two assists from the right wing. Most recently, against Brazil he assisted twice and played his first full 90 minutes for the senior team. 

He has been in great form in Barcelona, grabbing two assists across their Champions League quarter-final ties with Paris Saint-Germain and ten goal contributions across his 30 LaLiga appearances.

Betting trend: Spain Over 1.5 goals

For a side whose strike force doesn’t look the most potent on paper they are more than capable of finding the back of the net. Since the World Cup, this bet would have hit in eight of the 12 matches.

Fixtures

June 15 vs Croatia
June 20 vs Italy
June 24 vs Albania

Italy - 3.0

Most of the English readers won’t need reminding that Italy are the reigning European champions having beaten England on penalties back in 2021. 

It has been a rollercoaster ride since, though, they didn’t even qualify for the Qatar World Cup but then finished as a runner-up in their qualifying group for this tournament, winning four of their eight games and only conceding nine goals.

Despite a generally poor run of form since their Wembley triumph they are still more than capable of beating one of the ‘big’ international sides. They have come out on top against Netherlands, England and Belgium

Star man: Nicollo Barella

The Inter Milan midfielder won his second Serie A title in four years on Monday night and has become a key man for the national side over the last few seasons. You have to go back to 2022 to find the last time he missed a game for a reason other than injury. 

He even took the armband for their most recent match, a 2-0 win over Ecuador. While not being a regular on the scoresheet he has still found the back of the net on nine occasions in his 53 appearances. While largely being known for his creative play, he isn’t shy of putting a foot in to break up play and has picked up six yellow cards in the league this season.

One to watch: Ricardo Orsoloni 

Despite being 27-years-old, Orsoloni is relatively new to the international scene having only made six appearances. The right-winger has been in fine form for Bologna this season scoring ten goals in his 28 league appearances. 

Despite scoring in his first two appearances for the national side back in 2019 and 2020, he only returned to the side last December. If he can replicate his club form at Euro 2024, he will be a real threat down Italy’s right wing.

Betting trend: Over 2.5 goals in the game

Despite their perception as being a team which is built on strong defence, that is not the case anymore as they have adopted a less structured approach. In nine of their last 12 matches there have been over 2.5 goals. 

Fixtures

June 15 vs Albania
June 20 vs Spain
June 24 vs Italy

Croatia - 5.3

Croatia have been consistent over performers in international competitions for the last decade, particularly getting to the World Cup final in 2018 and then finishing third in Qatar. They also got to the final of the Nations League last summer, only to lose out on penalties to Group B favourites Spain. 

They finished one point behind group winners Turkey in their qualification for this tournament, winning five of their eight games and only tasting defeat twice. 

While the core of their team look like they have passed their best, they are a canny outfit that know how to navigate their way through big games. It would not be a shock if they qualified for the knockout stages.

Star man: Luka Modric

Even at the grand old age of 38, Modric is still Croatia’s main conductor. The midfielder is highly thought of in the game and the fact he was the only player to win the Ballon D’or apart from Ronaldo or Messi from 2007 to 2021 shows that. 

The five-time Champions League winner made his debut for the national side back in 2006 and has appeared a staggering 174 times for his country. This is likely to be his last major tournament so expect to see him giving it his all. 

One to watch: Bruno Petkovic

Petkovic will battle it out with Andrej Kramaric to lead the line for Croatia at this tournament. The 29-year-old has been in fine form for Dinamo Zagreb this season scoring 17 goals and getting nine assists in all competitions. He is also the second leading-scorer in the Europa Conference League with seven goals in just seven games. 

He made his Croatia debut back in 2019, but has had a bit of a stop start international career only managing 36 appearances and missing out on selection for squads on occasion. However, he was on hand to score in the 117th minute of Croatia’s World Cup quarter-final with Brazil, a match they went on to win on penalties. 

Betting trend: Croatia to receive Under 2.5 cards 

Despite an ageing midfield and having players such as Kovacic and Brozervic who aren’t exactly known for being the cleanest midfielders, they still receive very few cards. In their last 12 matches they have only received more than two cards in twice.

Fixtures

June 15 vs Spain
June 19 vs Albania
June 21 vs Italy

Albania - 24.0

Having made their major tournament debut at Euro 2016, Albania come into this tournament in a strong run of form. Impressively, they finished top of their qualification group that included Poland and the Czech Republic. 

Their prize for such an achievement was being drawn into the group of death. They are coached by Sylvinho and the Brazilian will need all the tactical knowledge he picked up from Arsene Wenger in his two years playing for Arsenal if they are going to cause an upset and qualify.

Their success in qualifying was largely due to a water-tight defence which only allowed five goals in the eight matches they played. They also managed to keep Robert Lewandowski quiet both times they faced him.

Star man: Armando Broja 

Despite being around the Premier League for a few seasons Broja is still only 22. He moved from Chelsea to neighbours Fulham for £28 million in the summer but has failed to impress, finding the back of the net only once in the Premier League.

However, he is still working his way back from injury and has shown in glimpses that he has all the attributes to be a top class striker. 

One to watch: Kristjan Asllani

The central defensive midfielder has become a big part of Albania’s success in the last couple of seasons. He has appeared in their last 13 matches, playing at least 70 minutes in all but three of them. 

Asllani is only 22-years-old but is already at Inter Milan, where he has appeared 27 times this season. 

Betting trend: Match to have Under 4.5 cards

Despite their 2-0 win over Poland in September including 13 cards, matches containing Albania are generally clean affairs. This bet would have hit in eight of their last 13 matches. 

Fixtures

June 15 vs Italy
June 19 vs Croatia 
June 21 vs Spain