EFL Betting Tips: Can Ipswich keep pace with Leeds at the top of the championship

March is upon us and the end of the season beckons. In this week's tipsheet, we look at four high-scoring Championship teams, promotion chasers in League One and a feisty derby in League 2. 

Plymouth vs Ipswich

Kick Off: 15:00

Plymouth and Ipswich were promoted together last season automatically after an intense title race that saw Argyle prevail by just three points. However, this season, both sides are now battling at opposite ends of the table.  

Plymouth are 15th in the table but sit just five points clear of relegation. An impressive 2-0 win at Middlesbrough halted a run of four league games without victory. Pressure had begun to mount on Ian Foster, with the 47-year-old struggling to get consistency out of his side.

The Pilgrims have scored 53 goals and conceded 57, with their games averaging 3.2 goals. Only Blackburn and Rotherham have conceded more goals than Plymouth, but only the top four and Norwich have scored more, with their games high scoring at both ends. 

Ipswich have been surprise packages this season and sit just outside the automatic promotion places on goal difference. Kieran McKenna has won many plaudits for his entertaining style of play and has been linked with moves away, but as of now he is still at the Tractor Boys.

Ipswich’s 68 goals scored is only bettered by Leicester’s 70, with McKenna’s side averaging two goals scored a game. However, the reason they are not in the automatic places is their defence, conceding 45 goals in 34 games. Ipswich games have averaged 3.32 goals.

Ipswich are on a run of four straight victories, with all four seeing at least three goals. In fact, nine of their last ten games have seen at least three goals, with nine also seeing BTTS.

Both sides rank high in ‘over 2.5 goals’ metrics. 14/17 (82%) of Plymouth home games and 23/34 (68%) have seen over 2.5 goals – a total only bettered by Blackburn. 22/34 (65%) of Ipswich games have seen over 2.5 goals – a total only Blackburn and Plymouth have beaten. 

An extra caveat to this bet is that it landed earlier in the season, with Ipswich running out 3-2 winners.

Prediction: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.64

Swansea vs Blackburn

Kick Off: 15:00

A huge relegation six pointer takes place in South Wales as 17th place Swansea host 16th place Blackburn, with both teams just four points clear of relegation. 

After a treacherous start to the season under Michael Duffy, Swansea turned to Notts County’s Luke Williams to restore their stuttering season. It has been an inconstant start to life in Wales for the 42-year-old, with Swansea winning three, drawing one and losing six of his games in charge.

However, Williams can take solace in the fact that five of these defeats have come against the top four and Premier League opposition in Bournemouth. Impressive wins at Hull and Sunderland would’ve eased some concerns as the Swans aim to steer clear of relegation worries. 

Swansea have scored 43 goals and conceded 55 this season, with their games averaging just shy of three a game. As mentioned in previous articles, Williams favours an attacking style of football, with Notts County breaking many goalscoring records. 22/34 (65%) of Swansea games have seen over 2.5 goals.

Blackburn are the visitors to the Swansea.com Stadium. Rovers have only won one of their last thirteen games, with Jon Dahl Tomasson citing off the field issues as his reason for leaving. 

John Eustace, who was harshly sacked by Birmingham, is now in the Ewood Park dugout and the 44-year-old is tasked with stabilising the club and pulling away from a relegation battle.

With 60 goals conceded in 34 games, Blackburn have the second worst defensive record in the league. In Sammie Szmodics, Rovers have the leagues top scorer, so goals have not been a problem for them. Games involving Blackburn are averaging 3.17 goals. 

13/17 (76%) of Blackburn away games have seen over 2.5 goals – the second highest total in the league. Eustace’s side top the league for overall ‘over 2.5 goals’ games with 25/34 of their matches seeing three or more goals.

Prediction: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 goals @ 2.06

Peterborough vs Exeter

Kick Off 15:00

The League One promotion race is intriguing, with Derby, Bolton, Barnsley and Peterborough all seemingly feeling the pressure. Seven points separate second-place Derby and 6th place Stevenage, with many of the top six hitting mini-blips in recent weeks as pressure builds.

Peterborough are one of those clubs, losing four games in a row, before a victory over rivals Cambridge halted this run. These losses were particularly worrying, conceding two goals at home to Blackpool and away to Exeter, as well as three at home to Wigan and five at Wycombe. 

Before this, Posh had gone on a run of 12 matches without defeat as they chased promotion to the Championship. Automatic promotion seemed out of the picture after their blip, but due to recent slip ups from Derby and Bolton, Peterborough are just seven points off autos with two games in hand.

Despite having only one player on double digits for goals, Peterborough are the league’s top scorers, scoring 61 goals in 33 games. Goals have flown at London Road for Posh, scoring 34 goals in 15 home games.

Exeter make the long journey to Cambridgeshire, sitting in 15th on 40 points. With 48.25 the average points needed to survive in the last eight seasons, Exeter know just a few more points should keep them safe. 

Gary Caldwell’s side have been leaky on the road conceding 31 goals, with only Reading conceding more away goals. The Grecians have also struggled in front of goal away from St James Park, scoring just 15 in 17.  A trip to a wounded Peterborough side is not ideal for a team with away issues.

While Peterborough’s price of 1.46 is too short to back as a single, backing them in the Asian Handicap market presents value. With this bet, if Peterborough win by just one goal, we get a refund, but a win by two or more goals sees a winning bet.

Prediction: Peterborough -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 

AFC Wimbledon vs MK Dons

Kick Off: 15:00

Finishing off the EFL tipsheet is a fierce rivalry between AFC Wimbledon and Mk Dons. A rivalry arising from the relocation of the original Wimbledon to Milton Keynes, matches between these two are often tetchy affairs. 

After a disappointing season that saw them survive by just five points, the Wombles were expecting a much better showing this time around. Johnnie Jackson’s side currently 13th after losing three of their last four matches, scoring just once. 

However, as is the unpredictable nature of League 2, the Dons are just four points clear of 17th and four points off the playoffs. Ali Al-Hamadi was their key player, scoring 23 goals in 42 league games across two seasons, before securing a move to Ipswich.  

AFC Wimbledon have struggled without the Iraqi, scoring just ten times in 11 matches in his absence. One of these games was the reverse fixture, with Jackson’s side 3-0 down after 22 minutes, eventually losing 3-1.

MK Dons on the other hand are dreaming of an instant return to League One and currently sit fifth, just three points off the final automatic promotion place. 

Manager Mike Williamson was poached from National League side Gateshead in October, in the hopes he can improve on Graham Alexander’s stuttering start to life in Buckinghamshire. 

The 40-year-old has reinvigorated the side, with Milton Keynes scoring 41 goals in his 24 matches in charge, losing just seven times. 

25-year-old Dan Kemp was flying for Swindon, scoring 14 goals in 25 games, before being recalled in January. Since playing again for the Dons, Kemp has scored three in 10, strengthening an already potent MK attack. 

With MK Dons building momentum ahead of a late promotion charge and AFC Wimbledon’s season in danger of petering out, the visitors will fancy their chances of completing a league double over their bitter rivals. 

Prediction: Milton Keynes draw no bet @ 2.00

Recommended Bets:

Back Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Plymouth vs Ipswich @ 1.64
Back Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals in Swansea vs Blackburn @ 1.84
Back Peterborough to beat Exeter with a -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.71
Back MK Dons draw no bet against AFC Wimbledon @ 2.00