Wednesday's MLB Betting Tips: Red Sox Feature Against Nationals

Wednesday is packed with MLB action as the Playoff races heat up in both leagues. We’ve trawled through the latest odds to identify our three best bets.

Marlins v Astros

First pitch: 11:40pm Wednesday

Two aces duel in Miami on Wednesday night with Justin Verlander taking on Jesus Luzardo. Verlander has a 3.15 ERA on the season, and Luzardo has been excellent across the year despite a couple of rough outings in his last two appearances. 

Only two teams have gone under the five-inning total more frequently than the Miami Marlins. Their offence has hardly been potent this season, and they rank 26th by wRC+ over the last month despite some higher-scoring games of late. Houston has gone 5-5 on the total in the first five innings over their last 10 games. 

We are backing Luzardo to bounce back from his season-worst performance and at least keep the Marlins in the game here. Verlander might not be the pitcher he was in 2022, but he should be able to keep this Miami offence relatively quiet. 

Under 4.5 is a good bet here – Verlander has allowed just seven earned runs in his last five starts, while Luzardo has a 3.31 ERA at home. 

Prediction: Under 4.5 runs in the first five innings @ 1.79

Nationals v Red Sox

First pitch: 12:05am Thursday

The Boston Red Sox have got back on track after a rough start to August. Winners of five of their last six, Boston is comfortably favoured over the Washington Nationals, who are sending MacKenzie Gore to the mound on Wednesday night.

Gore’s xERA is up above five after a difficult few weeks. He pitched to a 6.64 ERA in July and has not been any better in August, with six earned runs conceded to the Phillies in his last start. Washington is 8-15 in his starts.

James Paxton takes the ball for the Red Sox after 5.1 shutout frames against the Royals in his prior start. Paxton has given up three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 12 starts. His underlying metrics back up his strong season-long statistics.

Washington has trailed after five innings in five of their last 10 games, while the Red Sox have made a habit of taking early leads. There’s some great value here. 

Prediction: Boston Red Sox -0.5 after five innings @ 1.88

Cardinals v Athletics

First pitch: 11:45pm Wednesday

Matthew Liberatore might have pitched a gem against the Rays last time out, but he’s been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year with a 6.50 xERA and brutal expected metrics across the board. He faces Paul Blackburn, owner of a 4.52 ERA, who has conceded four or more earned runs in four of his last nine starts.

St Louis’ offence remains dangerous, placing fourth in wRC+ since 16th August. Oakland have actually been around the middle of the pack offensively across that span, which has contributed to going over this total in three of their last five games. Only four teams have hit the over more frequently than the Athletics in 2023.

The combination of subpar pitching and a deep, powerful offence means the Cardinals are always tempting to bet the over on. This pitching matchup lends itself to a runfest – this over could hit in the first five innings.

Prediction: Over 9.5 total runs @ 1.96

Recommended bets

Marlins v Astros: Under 4.5 runs in the first five innings @ 1.79
Nationals v Red Sox: Boston Red Sox -0.5 after five innings @ 1.88
Cardinals v Athletics: Over 9.5 total runs @ 1.96