Thursday’s MLB Tips: Miami Marlins backed for a strong start against Flaherty

There are 13 baseball games scheduled for Thursday night, which includes a double-header between the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. 

MLB expert Sam Cox is on hand to provide his best bets from the slate.

Marlins v Cardinals

First pitch: 11.40pm Thursday

Eury Perez had a nightmare in his last start with seven earned runs and just one recorded out. However, that doesn’t tell the full story and he still owns excellent underlying metrics for the season after a glittering start to his Major League career. 

The rookie matches up with Jack Flaherty on Thursday night. Flaherty was good against the Yankees last time, but he has a 4.61 ERA on the year and his xERA is up at 4.74. He allowed 12 earned runs over his last two June starts. 

Miami had two late-game comebacks and a blowout to win the first three games of this series. While the Cardinals have a superior offence on paper, the Marlins have had a lot of success against St Louis’ arms in this series so far.

With swing-and-miss stuff and decent command, Perez should be able to bounce back in this game. He should outduel Flaherty in the early innings, and 2.06 is great value about the Marlins leading after five frames. 

Prediction: Marlins -0.5 innings 1 to 5 @ 2.06

Guardians v Royals

First pitch: 12.10am Friday

The Royals interestingly lost Jordan Lyles’ first 15 starts of the season, however they bounced back in his most recent outing. Nevertheless, that doesn’t stop them being massive underdogs against the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday night.

Lyles has an ERA well above six and an xERA around five. He faces rookie pitcher Tanner Bibee, who has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 12 starts in the big leagues. Bibee strikes hitters out at a decent rate and has solid command, while generating a lot of soft contact. Kansas City could struggle – they have the third-highest ground ball rate over the last month.

No team has covered the spread less frequently than the Royals this season. Backing this low-powered Cleveland offence to win by two or more runs might feel like a risk, but Kansas City has lost 17 of its last 28 by two-plus runs. 

Prediction: Guardians -1.5 @ 1.98

Red Sox v Rangers

First pitch: 12.10am Friday

Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi has the fifth-best ERA in the American League. Kutter Crawford, starting for Boston, has allowed more than two runs just once in 15 starts since conceding seven in his first outing of the year.

Boston’s offence ranks in the bottom 10 by wRC+ over the last month. Texas has hit the over in only 19 of their 42 away games so far this season, despite their explosive offence placing among the best in the league across various metrics. The first two games in this series have produced eight and six runs, which makes it surprising to see the total set at 10.5 for Thursday’s clash, particularly with Eovaldi and Crawford taking the mound.

The Red Sox have gone under this total in 10 of their previous 12. Even with some concerns about the bullpens, the under is the way to go for this game. The relievers can afford to concede a couple of runs if Eovaldi and Crawford provide strong starts as expected. 

Prediction: Under 10.5 runs @ 1.81

Thursday’s MLB Tips

Marlins v Cardinals: Marlins -0.5 innings 1-5 @ 2.06
Guardians v Royals: Guardians -1.5 @ 1.98
Red Sox v Rangers: Under 10.5 runs @ 1.81