Thursday’s MLB Betting Tips: Runs Expected at Comerica Park

The final day of August might not be the busiest day of the MLB season with only four games taking place, but there’s still plenty of betting value to be found. 

Tigers v Yankees

First pitch: 6:10pm Thursday

Clarke Schmidt and Matt Manning take the mound on Thursday night with neither pitcher holding particularly impressive numbers on the season. Manning’s xERA starts with a five, and Schmidt has an ERA of 5.04 this month. 

Manning’s underlying metrics are brutal across the board. While Schmidt has excellent spin rates and some slightly better numbers, he’s still a below-average starting pitcher. Manning is also followed by a subpar bullpen which has desperately struggled this month.

These offences haven’t exactly been setting the world alight, though Detroit’s young core have brought some hope and upside. They both rank middle of the pack by wRC+ over the last 30 days, but both line ups will fancy their chances against these starting pitchers.

This line might seem a little high with the lack of offensive production, but the Yankees could receive a boost from Jasson Dominguez and we fancy the Tigers to do some damage against Schmidt in the early going. 

Prediction: Over 8.5 runs @ 1.94

Nationals v Marlins

First pitch: 12:05am Friday

Miami has crumbled in the second half, going 13-28 since the break. Their offence has been unproductive, their bullpen has blown games, and their starting pitching has been inconsistent. A Playoff berth now looks unlikely – they are somehow only five games ahead of the Washington Nationals in the loss column.

Washington has quietly played some excellent baseball in August, posting a 17-10 record. Thursday’s starter Joan Adon pitched six shutout innings when he faced the Marlins on Friday, which saw him outduel Marlins starter Braxton Garrett. 

The Marlins have mustered only 17 runs across their last 10 games. This line up has been shutdown repeatedly, and it makes little sense for them to be favoured here. Adon has pitched better than his results suggest, with a 4.33 xERA, while Garrett has required good fortune to post a sub-four ERA on the year. 

Just three teams have covered the runline more often than the Nats this season. There’s great value backing the dogs in this one. 

Prediction: Nationals +1.5 @ 1.82

Dodgers v Braves

First pitch: 03:10am Friday

The National League’s two best teams meet at Dodger Stadium on Thursday night with Spencer Strider taking on Lance Lynn. Strider is on course for an historic strikeout season, while Lynn is the latest veteran to be transformed by the Dodgers’ pitching coaches.

Since arriving before the trade deadline, Lynn’s ERA sits a shade above two. Strider leads the big leagues in strikeouts, and boasts an MLB-best FIP of 2.79. 

These two offences are deep and feature some of the league’s best hitters. Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr and Freddie Freeman are in the midst of an epic battle for the NL MVP award. Each line up has tormented starting pitchers this season, but we think this could be a relatively slow start with how Strider and Lynn have pitched.

Lynn has allowed four earned runs in his last four starts. For Strider, it’s one in his last three. Take the under on the first five innings here.

Prediction: Under 4.5 runs after five innings @ 1.77

Recommended bets

Tigers v Yankees: Over 8.5 runs @ 1.94
Nationals v Marlins: Nationals +1.5 @ 1.82
Dodgers v Braves: Under 4.5 runs after five innings @ 1.77