Super Bowl 2023 Tips: Mahomes magic or joy for Jalen?

Much of the NFL’s entertainment factor comes from its unpredictability, so it is perhaps surprising that Super Bowl LVII will be contested by two teams that have recently made a habit of going all the way.

The purpose of the NFL Draft is to allow all 32 teams to recruit talent from the collegiate ranks while also levelling the playing field - the side with the worst record each year is allocated the first pick and each round works in a linear format. However, the Kansas City Chiefs clearly don’t believe in taking turns to achieve success.

Since elevating Texas Tech alumni Patrick Mahomes to starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2018 season, the Kansas City Chiefs have dominated. Not only have they racked up a jaw-dropping string of consecutive AFC West titles, but they are now playing in their third Super Bowl in the last five years and could lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy for a second time in that timeframe.

Owning a franchise quarterback with the technical capabilities of Mahomes is crucial - very few can do what he does - but the tactical minds of head coach Andy Reid, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo have enabled long-term success. Speed, agility and versatility has been the memo there for years.

The same can be said for the Philadelphia Eagles, though their transition has only come since they drafted dual-purpose quarterback Jalen Hurts in 2020. Many believed the Alabama and Oklahoma product lacked the arm talent to be considered among the best in the league, but Hurts has proved them wrong this year with an exceptional statistical campaign.

Although he has the capabilities to make plays by himself, the addition of wide receiver AJ Brown from the Tennessee Titans has given Hurts a safety blanket. Add in Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and a rejuvenated Miles Sanders and this unit has to be feared. 

Many analysts are predicting this game to be a shootout between two of the most power-packed offensive units in the league, and the over/under line on total points is currently set at 51. I wouldn’t be surprised if the over hit, but I’m interested in playing some other markets and have four bets lined up. Let’s get to them.

What are the best betting opportunities?

There is little getting away from the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles have had a charmed run to the Super Bowl. Their regular season schedule panned out to be far easier than many anticipated - they only played two playoff teams between week five and week 18 - and both the Giants, who lack quality in an array of positions, and the 49ers, who were forced to play their fourth-string quarterback, failed to cause any issues in the last two weeks.

However, the Eagles are perhaps a little more than just hype. I’ve already mentioned their significant talent in skill positions on offence, but their defence shouldn’t be overlooked either. Philly topped the charts with sacks this season with 70, largely due to Hassan Reddick causing havoc off the edge (19.5 sacks), and quarterback pressure has always been the best way to cause turnovers and subsequently win games.

Unsurprisingly, the Eagles boast a turnover differential of +12. That isn’t just due to the pass rush, but also tight coverage from their secondary. Corners James Bradberry and Darius Slay jnr each had three interceptions in the regular season, while safety CJ Gardner Johnson led the league with six picks. 

Patrick Mahomes: one of the best players in the NFL and already a Super Bowl winner

Although you have to expect the Chiefs to put up points given Mahomes’ prowess to make plays to Travis Kelce, Jerrick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney et al, this Eagles defence is going to prove a tough nut to crack on a regular basis. 

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defence has largely struggled to make big plays and stop their opponents. With a turnover differential of ±0 and times when their unit has proved porous against electric rival offences, there’s a good chance that they get run over by Philly’s scheming.

Furthermore, the Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on an eyewatering 67% of times their opponents have entered the redzone this year (31st in the league), while the Eagles have converted 68% of their drives in their opponent’s redzone (3rd in the league). Those statistics make for grim reading if you’re a Chiefs fan.

The plus side is that Chiefs’ defensive lineman Chris Jones has proved pretty unstoppable throughout (17.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss), despite being double-teamed on 70% of plays. However, one man cannot decide a game and their standard Cover-1 defence leaves them open to short-yardage plays underneath and out wide. 

The Chiefs have also allowed a remarkable 6.5 yards per carry on quarterback runs since week seven. With that in mind and the fact they struggle to come up big in their own redzone, take Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer (2.2) in your Bet Builders or accumulators.

If they struggle to stop Hurts, the Eagles will win this game (1.89) - and that’s the way I’m leaning. Perhaps those odds don’t quite float your boat, yet you believe they’ll beat the Chiefs. If that’s the case then I’d advise backing Jalen Hurts to win MVP (2.78). The Super Bowl-winning quarterback has taken home the prize in nine of the last 13 years and that trend can continue here.

Finally, it would be folly to leave out Mahomes from any potential Bet Builder/Acca given his ability. Many will focus on his unthinkable and unique throws, but statistics suggest that he will get it done on the ground despite carrying a high ankle sprain (if you believe that!). Over 19.5 rushing yards (1.91) looks a pretty attractive line and should be taken.

Super Bowl LVII Tips

Philadelphia Eagles to win @ 1.89
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer @ 2.2
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl MVP @ 2.78
Patrick Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards @ 1.91