Steelers v Browns: Will Pittsburgh's stout defence stop Nick Chubb?
By Jack Goddard
Latest Steelers v Browns odds21 September 2022
The Cleveland Browns face the Pittsburgh Steelers in a divisional battle on Thursday night, with the winner taking an early first-place berth in the AFC North standings.
This matchup is a replay of the astonishing 2021 AFC Wild Card game, where the Browns sprung into a 28-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 501 yards in response, but the Steelers ultimately crashed out of the playoffs with a 48-37 defeat.
Roethlisberger, a two-time Super Bowl champion, has now finally bowed out and left Pittsburgh with Mitch Trubisky at the helm - although rookie Kenny Pickett will be ready to step in should the journeyman falter.
Cleveland, meanwhile, will have Jacoby Brissett under center for at least another nine games, after new signing Deshaun Watson was suspended for well-documented off-field misdemeanors.
It’s fair to say, therefore, that both of these quarterbacks have a lot to prove if they want to keep a starting job beyond this season.
Chubb’s troubles
The real talent on both teams can be found away from the quarterbacks. The Browns have the best one-two punch in the league, with running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt already proving lethal out of the backfield this season.
Chubb scored three rushing touchdowns against the New York Jets on Sunday, while averaging 5.1 yards per carry on 17 attempts. His third score caused some controversy, however.
The Georgia alumnus entered the endzone with just 1:55 left on the clock to put his side 13 points up, but could have instead gone to ground and wound down the clock to ensure victory. The Jets scored just 33 seconds later, then recovered an onside kick and miraculously added to their tally to take a decisive 31-30 lead with 22 ticks remaining.
"I probably shouldn't have scored right there, honestly, looking back at it," Chubb said, via the Associated Press. "It cost us the game."
He continued: "A lot of things went wrong, not just one thing. But collectively as a unit, as a team we could have all done things differently, but it's only a problem because we didn't win. So I probably should have gone down."
That shouldn’t take away from Cleveland’s fantastic season on the ground so far, though. In two matches, Chubb and Hunt have rushed for 228 and 104 yards respectively - that’s 332 yards in total, or 166 per game.
Pittsburgh’s defensive steel
The Steelers’ strength lies on the other side of the ball, and their star man is undoubtedly outside linebacker TJ Watt. Unfortunately, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year has been placed on injured reserve after damaging his pectoral muscle, which is a huge blow to Pittsburgh’s already slim chances of a Super Bowl charge.
However, they strengthened an already impressive defensive unit in the off-season by adding inside linebacker Myles Jack from Jacksonville. He joined long-time veteran defensive tackle Cameron Heyward, who is now embarking on his 11th season with the franchise.
Pittsburgh’s biggest defensive talent (that is still fit), however, is Minkah Fitzpatrick. In week one, the safety made 14 tackles against the Bengals, returned an interception for a pick six and blocked Ewan McPherson’s extra point attempt, which took the game to overtime. He rightly earned the Defensive Player of the Week accolade for his performance.
The Steelers have only allowed 34 points in two games so far this season, while in their final five games last year they conceded just 13 against the Titans, 14 at the Browns and 13 versus the Ravens. The only side they’ve allowed more than 20 points against in their last seven competitive matches is the Chiefs - and that happened twice.
Close in Cleveland
The Browns are averaging 28 points per game this season, but have faced inferior defences so far. I expect them to jump into a lead at home and hold onto it, not least due to the power of their running back room.
Considering the ability - or lack thereof - of the two quarterbacks and the relative strength of Pittsburgh without the ball, under 38.5 points appears good value here. The only danger to that line is the ability of Chubb and Hunt to punch in touchdowns. In what figures to be a relatively close and low-scoring match-up, the Steelers +7.5 points on the spread also sparks my interest.