SBK Edge Rush: It's time to pierce the hype bubble after 'Overreaction Monday'

Everything in the NFL is getting bigger. Three notable examples are that Super Bowl week is growing outlandishly each year, contracts are becoming monumental and salary caps are rising.

Chuck in total passing yards, the value of broadcast deals, the number of podcasts, the weight of social media reaction and the sheer volume of columns like this. Bigger is better. 

Perhaps the most controversial addition to the NFL scenery is ‘Overreaction Monday’™, which has now become the most ridiculous day in sports. Hot takes are spewed with unnerving confidence despite a whopping sample size of, well, one game. So, in this column I am going to pierce the hype bubble and reset the balance just a little bit.

Packers and Watson set to bounce back

I imagine that’s Aaron Rodgers’ plan, too. This week, I asked Super Bowl winner Shane Vereen if a quarterback had ever looked at him the way Rodgers looked at rookie receiver Christian Watson after his spectacular drop cost them a certain touchdown and possibly changed the momentum of the game against Minnesota. Shane fessed up that Tom Brady had shot him a similar glare once upon a time. 

The Packers were blown out in week one of last season and the doom mongers wrote them - and Rodgers - off instantly. Four months later and the Packers had made the divisional round of the playoffs, while their signal-caller won his second successive MVP. Whether he makes it a hat-trick isn’t altogether clear, but Green Bay will be a playoff side and the comeback begins this weekend against Chicago. 

Aaron Rodgers: will make sure his Green Bay Packers bounce back on Sunday

Don’t be surprised if Rodgers looks to Watson early, and often. The young receiver could stack up 100+ yards and a score. Realistically, he will lean heavily on the ground game and rely on the tag-team of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to grind down the Bears, who, after their monsoon win over the 49ers at Soldier Field, will revert to type. This is a team that is in the bottom five in the NFL, despite boasting a promising quarterback who could one day be in the top tier. 

Don't write off Lance just yet

So too may Trey Lance, despite the noisy assertions after San Francisco’s loss that he’s a bust and that Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting sooner rather than later. Lance showed flashes of real poise - his 44-yarders to Jauan Jennings were a highlight – and made mistakes too, such is the way with, well, every rookie quarterback ever, particulaly one playing in the footballing equivalent of Lake Michigan. 

Lance didn’t play much in college either - some players come with more miles on the clock than others - so his adjustment period may well be longer. It will impact him that running back Eli Mitchell is now on injured reserve, but don’t expect the 49ers to change the script. Lots of runs – hello Deebo Samuel! – and a conservative, graduated approach for Lance. Expect them to go 1-1 with a win against a scrappy, but flawed Seattle. 

Doubts have already been cast about Matt Ryan in Indy after they struggled to a 20-20 tie with the unfancied Houston Texans. But Ryan and the Colts offence racked up over 500 yards and wasted numerous chances. Should they repeat their efforts, the Colts should fill their boots against a Jaguars secondary that’s lacking. Watch the ‘Ryan for MVP’ shouts start up soon as the Colts go on a roll. They’re contenders and will demonstrate that this weekend. 

Controversial hot-takes will be tested

‘Kirk Cousins for MVP’ is perhaps the most unlikely hot take from the week just gone, but his Vikings offence is legit. They will face a sterner test against the Eagles, particularly up front, where the line protected Cousins to the tune of just one sack and allowed the Minnesota ground game 4.5 yards per carry against the Packers. 

Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave et al won’t be as accommodating. If Cousins can pick up a road win in hostile Philly, I’m sure we’ll all be hearing about how they’re Super Bowl contenders and how the Eagles are probably done. Neither will be accurate so soon into the season. What’s more likely is that they will face off again in the postseason. 

No-one expects Dallas to make the cut now after the injury to Dak Prescott, but this was the overreaction that Vereen keyed in on during the show as his most ridiculous take. Dak could be back within a month and his back-up, Cooper Rush, while not a marquee name (as backups go) has been in and around the Cowboys organisation for five years.

He knows the offence fluently and has looked capable when called on in the past. If they can eke a few wins out during Dak’s down time, the Cowboys will be in the mix in a wide-open NFC East.