SBK Edge Rush: Play close attention to the starters in week 18

The final week of the regular season is almost always the most problematic to wager on. Some teams have little to play for while others are playoff bound with the promised land in touching distance, but both situations affect how a game may play out. 

Take the Giants v Eagles game this Sunday, for example. Will Philly risk starting star quarterback Jalen Hurts to help lock down the number one seed - and home-field advantage in the playoffs - but risk further injury for the post-season? New York are nailed on as the sixth seed in the NFC, so Brian Daboll has every reason to rest his starters - or at least yank them at some point to protect them for next weekend’s Wild Card weekend. 

What if Philly canters into a three-score lead and news travels to the 49ers and the Cowboys – the other two teams that can theoretically land the top seed? Will they ease off against Arizona and Washington respectively? Are we likely to see a slew of backdoor covers? 

Then there’s the dead-rubber gigs - Texans v Colts and Panthers v Saints. I’ve never bought into the idea that NFL players won’t play with requisite intensity – unless we’re talking the Pro Bowl – or the idea that second stringers getting more minutes automatically diminishes that team’s chances of covering the spread. But therein lies the problem, the manic complexity of Week 18 in the NFL. 

Wild Card Wonder

Outside of the top spot in the NFC, the other key focus is the remaining Wild Card spot - a three-way shootout between Green Bay, Detroit and Seattle. The Packers are in the box-seat – they secure the spot with a win regardless of what the Seahawks do - but if the Rams pull off an upset, then the Lions v Packers becomes a play-in game. 

It’s hard to know who has had the more remarkable turnaround. Detroit looked dead and buried at 1-6 but head coach Dan Campbell – and, more specifically, Ben Johnson – has the Lions offence firing. Trouble is, Green Bay’s resurgence, while inevitably placing Aaron Rodgers front and centre, has been mainly down to its defence finally living up to its billing as a top five unit. 

Sure, the Pack have got their ground game rolling with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon – and the Lions run defence can be really exploited in that area – but it’s Green Bay’s defence that’s gelling. I (half) joked on my podcast this week that the Packers are gonna win the Super Bowl, thus delivering the greatest America’s Game in the history of the documentary series. I think Rodgers gets it done on Sunday night in primetime, leaving them improbably three games away from the big show. 

Complex playoff standings

In the AFC, the top-seed picture is looking increasingly complex in the aftermath of the Bills v Bengals postponement following the shocking collapse of Damar Hamlin. Thankfully, the young Buffalo safety looks to be recovering, but the haunting imagery from Monday Night Football looms large and consequently makes seedings appear somewhat trite and immaterial. The league will make a ruling – possibly a neutral territory for the Championship game, which would be the fairest outcome as it’s unlikely the suspended game will be replayed. 

At the other end of the playoff ladder, all eyes are on the final Wild Card spot. New England controls their own destiny and they face the Bills, who will either be emotionally drained or super charged and in blowout mode. The Dolphins meet the Jets, who are now out of contention, while the Steelers take on the Browns. I’m backing the Fins to take the final spot.

Saturday Showdown 

That leaves Saturday night, and a win-or-bust AFC South showdown between Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Titans can claim to be the unluckiest team in football this season as their injury list is off the chart, and they will put their playoff future in the hands of journeyman career back-up Josh Dobbs when they face the Jaguars. 

Mike Vrabel is not to be underestimated as a coach, and it's testament to his ability that the Titans have a fighting chance to make the post-season given the adversity, but the Jags are rolling and Trevor Lawrence will get it done. Bring back playoff football to Duval just 12 months after the dysfunction-central of the Urban Meyer Experiment!

Over on our podcast SBK Edge Rush, which can be heard here, we’ve made our favourite bets - AKA our ‘Drew Locks of the Week’.