SBK Edge Rush: Rookie NFL head coaches might begin to feel the heat
By Nat Coombs
Latest NFL Odds6 October 2022
In the NFL, as with many industries, it is lonely at the top. Head coaches are a great example as the general level of pressure is off the charts.
Every decision is scrutinised and every mistake is replayed and debated on radio, TV, podcasts, social media, on a loop, until the next one. This is what I would have done. This is what he should have done. Why didn’t he take a time out? Why did he go for it on fourth down? Why this and why that.
It’s particularly acute for rookie head coaches, who are acclimatising to a role that dilutes the very thing that got them there in the first place - coaching. Now you’ve got to deal with the media, the owners, the general manager, medical staff, the whole team, and not just your area of specialism. It all leaves far less time for the scheming, dreaming and devising of plays that vaulted you into the spotlight in the first place.
And for first-year head coaches presiding over a team in development – NFL shorthand for not very good right now – it can be a long slog, especially since the ‘what have you done for me lately?’ bug hit NFL owners. In the past, teams would rarely move on from a head coach after just one year. Now, it’s a 50-50 call.
There are five head coaches this year that have never held the top job before, and two of them - Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears and Kevin O Connell of the Vikings - square off this weekend.
No-one expected the Bears to be particularly competitive this season, but despite some underwhelming output from talented quarterback Justin Fields – who has a whole new playbook to learn and very little around to play with, Darnell Mooney notwithstanding - Chicago finds themselves at .500.
Eberflus is a defensive mind, having presided over the impressive Colts defences of recent years, and will need to apply his smarts to adjusting a run defence that ranks dead last in the league. Although, with Dalvin Cook playing hurt, the run is something the Vikings have yet to get rolling.
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O’Connell was a (back-up) quarterback as a player and made his coaching name as a quarterback whisperer with stints in Washington and LA, where he was part of the Super Bowl winning side last season, as offensive coordinator.
He has led the Vikings to an unconvincing 3-1 record. At times sensational they have been sensational, at times they have been underwhelming. Both versions were witnessed in London last Sunday.
On the opening drive Minnesota played like Super Bowl champs, but they were barely able to recreate after this, profligate in the Red Zone and they almost allowed the Saints side back in. The Vikings are banking on his relationship with Kirk Cousins to take shape – they worked together in Washington – and if he can elevate him back to the reasonably high level he’s played in a solid, yet unremarkable, career, the Vikes could be genuine contenders.
Another rookie head coach (and quarterback guru), Brian Daboll, heads to London this weekend, as his New York Giants take on the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers in front of another sell-out crowd at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Daboll may be without his first and second string quarterbacks, though, and has called up Davis Webb from the practice squad. Even if Daniel Jones, his starter, shakes off an injury to play, the longer-term prognosis for him is not great, and yet Daboll could prove to be his saviour.
The former Bills offensive coordinator transformed Josh Allen from raw talent to elite level, and, if he can deliver even half the success with Jones, New York may be ahead of schedule.
Miami’s Mike McDaniel has quarterback issues of his own, though some would say it’s no-one’s fault but his. The distressing scenes last week when Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa left the game with a severe concussion, causing him to twitch convulse, have been widely examined, with the suggestion that he had suffered a similar injury the week before, and should never have been on the field.
McDaniel will need to scheme without his number one for the immediate short term, but, as back-ups go, Teddy Bridgewater is as capable as they come and should marshal the Fins offence with ease. McDaniel is an exciting prospect – innovative, somewhat eccentric, and the architect of an already highly dynamic offence predicated on speed, speed, and more speed, with a little bit of misdirection thrown in for good measure!
Against an improving Jets side this weekend, the matchup between McDaniel and his counterpart, Robert Saleh, will be fascinating.
Less invigorating is the troubled Denver offence, where Nathaniel Hackett is demonstrating some classic first-year jitters – indecision, caution, and a distinct lack of simpatico with future Hall of Famer Russell Wilson.
To further compound the challenges facing the sluggish offence, Javonte Williams, their number one running back, has suffered a serious injury. The Broncos are benefiting from possessing a very strong defence and unexpectedly indifferent starts from two of their divisional rivals (Raiders and Chargers), and there’s every reason to conclude that the Hackett/Wilson partnership will be well within its groove by mid-season, particularly with one of the more exciting receiving corps in the game.
Many have written Denver off already this season: I wouldn’t be so hasty.