SBK Edge Rush: Nat Coombs provides a mid-season overview of the NFL
By Nat Coombs
Latest NFL Odds17 November 2022
All eyes were looking West in preseason as the AFC appeared to boast the most talented quarterback constellation that we had seen for a long time.
There looked to be a real chance that AFC West quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert would all make the playoffs. Fast-forward three months and almost every projection has been turned on its head.
Firstly, it’s highly possible that only the Kansas City Chiefs will make it out of the AFC West as the Broncos and Raiders, who meet each other this weekend in a dead rubber, are almost certainly out of the race at the midway point.
It’s also hard to establish who has been a bigger disappointment - Denver’s Russell Wilson, the highly accomplished QB whose arrival sparked talk of a Super Bowl run, or the Raiders’ first-year Head Coach Josh McDaniels, who for years was one of the architects of the New England Patriots’ dominance. The Chargers have also flattered to deceive, and face Kansas City this weekend as heavy home underdogs with the very real risk of dropping to 5-5 if they lose.
As the AFC playoff chase hots up, they will most likely need at least 10 wins to have a serious shot at the post-season given how surprisingly resurgent the East has been. Everyone expected the Bills to lead the way and, although back-to-back defeats have meant they’re in a divisional fight with a rolling Miami side, they’ll rebound and should be strong enough to win the division, certainly to progress beyond the regular season.
The surprise package is the New York Jets, who, at 6-3, find themselves right in the mix after already chalking up more wins than many projected over the entire season. The loss of star rookie running back Breece Hall is a blow, because they’re a team built on defence without another X-factor offensive player to turn a game on a dime.
New England, who face the Jets this weekend, are in the mix at 5-4 and are another tough and defensively-minded outfit with limitations found in their unreconstructed, run-first offence. If the Jets take the W this weekend, they’ll be sitting pretty for an improbable postseason spot. If the Patriots win, we could see the East housing four playoff candidates.
Similar forces are at play in the NFC, and the West has not played out as many anticipated. The Rams are suffering an almighty Super Bowl hangover and are now without the injured Cooper Kupp, who was pretty much their only hope. There goes their chances of retaining the Lombardi trophy.
Arizona are wildly inconsistent, but, rather than blazing a trail through the first eight weeks of the season, this time they have already chalked up six losses and look done for. San Francisco are the dark horses to watch, not just in the NFC but across the NFL. The addition of Christian McCaffrey (CMC), the return of Deebo, and a power-play defence - not to mention one of the sharpest coaches in the game - means they’re a real contender to win it all, particular if they can catch Seattle to take the division.
The Seahawks are one of the most heartwarming stories of the season, with oft-discarded quarterback Geno Smith finally living up to his potential. He’s right in the mix for Comeback Player of the Year.
Reports circulated pre-season that Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll told his players that they were heading to the Super Bowl this year – cue much hilarity. But it’s the veteran coach who’s having the last laugh, and Seattle, despite their disappointing loss in Munich last week, could be at the final table, even if they may not have enough depth to follow through on his projection.
The NFC East, much like the AFC, could deliver four playoff teams. The Eagles have only just suffered their first defeat of the season, and the pre-season concerns over the validity of Jalen Hurts have been shot down. They have a decent bounce back spot against the Colts this weekend and should close the division out in the run-in.
Like their Big Apple rivals, the Giants have surpassed all expectations in the AFC East. Coach Brian Daboll looks like a lock for Coach of the Year if they make the dance. Dallas are stacked with playmakers and, if they win the Odell Beckham lottery, they have to be taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders. Don’t forget Washington, who are quietly going about their business and suddenly find themselves in the mix, especially with a winnable trip to Houston this Sunday.
It seems the only NFC team on the outside looking in, other than the Commanders who at 5-5 are sitting one spot shy of the playoffs, are the Packers, who are still alive - but only just. But if they don’t defeat the Titans this week, you can stick a fork in ‘em.
Ominously, Tom Brady and the Bucs look to be in pole position for the NFC South. Their defence is shaping up well, and an emerging ground game could support the GOAT in the knockout stages. Sound familiar?
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