SBK Edge Rush: Defeat for Lawrence and the Jags won’t harm his reputation

After being drafted first overall in 2021, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence was expected to  secure his place as a card-carrying member of the Elite Quarterback Club in the very near future.

But his first season was tainted by the disaster movie known as the ‘Urban Meyer Experiment’, which left NFL cinemas after just one tempestuous term. During that year, Lawrence predictably showed flashes of potential but appeared otherwise underwhelming. 

Then came the switch to head coach Doug Pederson, who travelled to Florida with pedigree. Super Bowl winner? Check. Quarterback whisperer? Check. Watches the NFL regularly (apparently unlike his predecessor)? Check. Lawrence hasn’t just thrived under his watch, he’s positively transformed. 

Sure, last week’s comeback against Los Angeles could be described as the most Chargers-esque performance of an infamous history of dramatic collapses and near misses. But LA’s capitulation was also down to Lawrence's performance, which was extraordinary and exhilarating in equal measure. 

His four first-half interceptions left his team in a 27-0 hole and had him on course for one of the worst returns in the history of the playoffs. But the mettle, spirit and focus he showed in the second half, during which he threw for three touchdowns to add to the one he picked up at the tail-end of the second quarter, was admirable. 

Talk of quarterbacks battling a whole new level of mental pressure in the playoffs is at times overstated, but Lawrence showed us a lot in regards to his resilience and focus. No-one really gave them a chance of coming back, certainly not the punter who reportedly backed the Chargers at half-time with a $1.4 million bet at odds so low that the win totalled just $12,500. Maybe it was Urban Meyer? 

Lawrence won’t be full of fear when he steps into Arrowhead this week to take on Patrick Mahomes and his freewheeling Kansas City Chiefs. However, the Jaguars defence might. Kansas City has somehow looked even more dangerous since it moved on from the Tyreek Hill era with the emergence of Isiah Pacheco and the addition of Kadarius Toney. 

The Chiefs are coming off a bye week and boast a 10-point win over the Jags earlier in the season on their record, though they’re just 4-5 this season against the spread when seven-point favourites or greater. Prop-O pushed the Over as one of his fave picks this week over on the SBK Edge Rush podcast - and I’m with him.

Patrick Mahomes: will lead his Kansas City Chiefs out to face the Jacksonville Jaguars this week

If this becomes a shootout then the Chiefs will win but Lawrence can leave with his head held high. He will then appear well on his way to getting his name above the door and becoming a partner of the Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and Herbert firm.

Talking of Allen and Burrow, they square off in the other AFC divisional match-up this weekend and I love that the Cincinnati Bengals are being wildly underestimated here - Cincy +5.5 is my (Drew) Lock of the Week. 

The Bengals’ offensive line is banged up, but I’m not convinced the Buffalo Bills have enough to exploit that weakness. Since Von Miller suffered his injury, they have been below average in pressure rates as per PFF. Plus, Joe Brrr’s release has quickened considerably this season – he’s second only to Tom Brady in that department – and I feel the receiving corps of Chase, Higgins, Boyd and Hurst beats that of Diggs, Davis, Beasley and Knox. 

Allen is great but appears yet to find his groove. Miami made life very difficult for him last week, and the tag team of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard can make similar hay. Do Cincy win outright? Maybe. But a 5.5-point advantage is disrespectful to the current AFC Champs and I’m on it all the way. 

NFC match-ups 

The New York Giants have been one of the best stories of the season and credit to the Vikings defence for making Danny Dimes look like John Elway last week. 

However, I’m pretty sure their run will come to an end on Saturday. Lane Johnson is expected to return for the Philadelphia Eagles, which is massive news, and their front seven will cause havoc in the trenches. Eagles should cover. 

Meanwhile, Dallas v San Francisco should be similarly one-sided - so much so that we were scratching our heads over on Edge Rush as to why the 49ers aren’t bigger favourites.

Is it recency bias after the Cowboys’ storming beatdown of the Bucs? Do the traders have Brock Purdy concerns? I’m not sure, but don’t be surprised if San Fran head coach Kyle Shanahan keeps it simple by running the hell out of the things. 49ers win!

Over on our podcast SBK Edge Rush, which can be heard here, we’ve made our favourite bets - AKA our ‘Drew Locks of the Week’.