SBK Edge Rush: Nat Coombs delves deep into the Conference Championship games

The final four is set and it feels like the right teams have made it to the Conference Championship round. 

The Philadelphia Eagles have been the pacesetters all season long and boast a formidable defence - 75 sacks and counting - along with the most improved player in the league, quarterback Jalen Hurts. The former Alabama and Oklahoma product has moved from tenuous starter status to a superstar over the course of the last five months. 

Another team with a mean defence is the San Francisco 49ers, who have battled extraordinary adversity this term. Teams that lose their starting quarterback have made it to the promised land in the past - the 2017 Super Bowl-winning Eagles achieved the feat with Nick Foles recently - but, not only did San Francisco lose both their starter (Trey Lance) and their backup (Jimmy Garoppolo), let’s not forget that third-stringer Brock Purdy is a seventh-round rookie. 

Purdy has been calm and composed throughout his extended and unexpected understudy stint - he has thrown just three picks and posted no other turnovers. That’s been the logical gameplan from Kyle Shanahan – keep it simple, let the all-stars around do the heavy lifting, and Purdy has delivered. 

A sturdy offensive line has been integral, Shanahan’s inventive ground game has worked, and the revitalised George Kittle has been key. The 49ers possess another game-breaking weapon in Deebo Samuel, too. 

The perceived weakness on Philly’s defence is that it struggles to stop the run, but it’s an improving unit with several mid-season reinforcements added that includes Linval Joseph and Robert Quinn, who have shored things up. Purdy hasn’t been asked to beat an elite team yet with deep hits. This game may well come down to that strategy, and we’ll see if we’re dealing with a competent NFL starter or a superstar-in-waiting. 

What’s more, the Eagles love the deep ball – they are ranked second in the NFL in passes over 20 yards and joint-first on completions of 40 yards or more. Hurts is a next-gen, dual-threat quarterback with a big arm and a fearless disposition. In a tight game, I’m backing him to outduel his rookie counterpart, and have the Eagles covering the -2.5 spread. 

Mahomes injury causes concern

Sunday’s AFC encounter between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs is equally compelling and similarly tough to call, primarily due to the high ankle sprain suffered by Patrick Mahomes in KC’s divisional round win over the Jaguars. 

Players are routinely out for weeks with such an injury, but Mahomes has been a full participant in training this week and is expected to compete. He will invariably be hindered by the injury - most notably his mobility and therefore his ability to extend plays, but this is a different Chiefs offence these days, one that patiently slices and dices and uses an array of weapons. 

Tight end Travis Kelce had 14 catches in the win over Jacksonville and you should expect him to be called on to lead the offence, but it’s intriguing to see how head coach Andy Reid will tackle things. I expect to see some big plays from a more unlikely source, either Skyy Moore or Kadarius Toney could write the headlines. 

Travis Kelce: an integral part of this Kansas City Chiefs offence

The Bengals have injury issues of their own, not that you would have noticed in their devastating takedown of the Bills last week! Their offensive line may be bolstered with some returning starters, including Alex Cappa, but Joe Burrow’s time of release is the second-fastest in the league, so even if you succeed in bringing pressure it may not matter. 

Keep a close eye on that. Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a modern-day genius - he’s the architect of the great Giants’ fronts that featured Strahan, Umenioyra, Tuck and co - and he may be able to exploit the fragility in the Cincy O-line that others haven’t. Conversely, Bengals DC Lou Anarumo has routinely perplexed Mahomes, which is not an easy thing to do. His battle with Andy Reid will be fascinating. 

From a betting perspective, the line keeps moving on this game. Bengals started as underdogs, then went over the other way, and at the time of writing it’s a pick’em. I’m leaning towards Cincy because of the uncertainty with Mahomes - there could be regression during the game if he takes hits - while the Bengals offence is rolling in a slipstream right now. Nevertheless, this is the definition of a game that could go either way.

Over on our podcast SBK Edge Rush, which can be heard here, we’ve made our favourite bets - AKA our ‘Drew Locks of the Week’.