Packers v Titans Tips: Aaron Rodgers set for back-to-back home wins

There's one question on the lips of every NFL fan heading into Thursday Night Football: Are Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers back in playoff contention after Sunday's win?

Following a five-game skid, which saw the Cheeseheads record home defeats to the Jets and Giants and road losses against the Commanders, Bills and Lions, the Packers came out swinging against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend and posted an unlikely 31-28 victory.

So, what changed in that game for Green Bay? The simple answer is: Matt LaFleur’s increased desire to get the ball to playmakers Aaron Jones and Christian Watson. Finding opportunities to put the pigskin in the hands of your biggest weapons is crucial for every team, especially the Packers right now, and a victory over former head coach Mike McCarthy was rightly greeted with joy and relief from the Lambeau Field faithful.

Talking of weapons, starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill returned to the fray for the Tennessee Titans at the weekend after missing two games with a sprained right ankle. His presence restarted their previously stagnant offence and helped them record a crucial 17-10 victory over the Denver Broncos. 

Now both teams will look to back-up their recent win as they face off in Wisconsin after a short week. The Green Bay Packers are currently three-point favourites on the spread, so let’s break down this intriguing game.

One-hit wonder?

As effectively as the Packers ran the ball against the Cowboys defence on Sunday - they averaged 5.3 yards per carry and totalled 207 total yards on the ground - the fact that they repeatedly scythed through the defensive front was in part thanks to rookie wide receiver Christian Watson.

Watson, who played for North Dakota State at collegiate level before being drafted in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, has suffered from countless drops and injuries this year, but finally showed why his current organisation believed he was a worthy replacement for Davante Adams during the off-season.

He has a long way to go to earn the trust of Rodgers, and even longer to boast the status of Adams, but Watson’s three touchdown, 107-yard game against Dallas certainly put him back in the good books. His deep-threat potential scares opposing defences and forces their safeties to stay high, thus allowing big gaps between the hashes for Aaron Jones and back-up AJ Dillon to scoot through.

If Watson can continue to stretch the field while Allen Lazard and Sammy Watkins convert crucial third downs, this Packers offence will begin to thrive once more. This match-up should help Aaron Rodgers’ unit as the Titans currently sit 31st (out of 32) for total passing yards allowed per game. 

Run Henry, Run

Tennessee have won six of their last seven games, and only a heartbreaking 20-17 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs has blotted the record books. Derrick Henry has rushed for 806 yards - almost half of the Titans overall offensive yards (1635) - and posted eight touchdowns in that period, so it is fair to say that the star running back has carried his team to success.

Henry will need to continue churning out the yards if the Titans want to retain their top spot in the AFC South and beat opponents like the Green Bay Packers. ‘The King’ has only been to Lambeau Field once in the regular season and earned a statline of 23 carries for 98 yards and no touchdowns. He didn’t have much of an issue moving the rock that day, but finding paydirt is crucial otherwise Titans points might be at a premium.

The Packers have allowed 140.6 rushing yards per game this year (seventh-most in the league), and Tony Pollard gashed them for 115 yards last weekend. Henry will be hoping that those large holes open up, otherwise receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (two touchdowns last week) might be going deep on a regular basis!

Game verdict

I don’t necessarily believe the Green Bay Packers are ‘back’ (as much as I want it to be true!), but LaFleur’s offensive playcalling and Rodgers’ decision-making certainly improved against the Dallas Cowboys. They have more talent than the Titans on their roster, and homefield advantage at Lambeau Field is worth its weight in gold. As a result, I want to take the Packers -3 on the spread. 

Packers v Titans Predictions

Green Bay Packers -3 @ 1.96