Olympic Basketball Betting Tips: Value to be found in w/o USA market

Basketball has been a major player in the Olympic movement since it joined the Games at Berlin in 1936. It won’t surprise you to learn that it has been dominated by the USA, they have won gold medals at 16/20 Games the sport has featured. Their record is actually 15/19 because they missed the 1980 Moscow Olympics due to political reasons.

The relationship between the sport and the Olympic movement changed after the US team failed to win gold at Seoul 1988. The embarrassment of ending up with the bronze made the NBA rethink their approach to the Games. In an effort to reclaim American pride, they allowed professional players to compete at Barcelona in 1992 and what became known as the Dream Team was assembled. The roster was so packed with talent that 11 of the 12 players went on to become members of the Basketball Hall of Fame for their individual careers.

The Dream Team changed the face of the sport and its global popularity soared as a result. Back in 1992, the USA team faced just nine NBA players on opposition teams, in 2024 they will face 61. What was an American sport, is now a global game. 

Let’s take a look at the teams who will be fighting for a place on the podium.

USA - 1.26

Despite the growth of the game in other countries, the US are still odds on favourites to take home the gold at 1.26. They are undefeated in their five warm-up matches, but were made to work by both Germany and, more surprisingly, South Sudan. 

Led by veteran LeBron James, the team has a great mix of youth and experience combined with eye-watering amounts of talent. Eight of the 12 players on the USA roster featured in last season’s All-NBA teams, the rest of the countries have just three players who made that grade.

James will be the flag bearer for the United States at the opening ceremony, the first time that a male basketball player has had the honour.

Such is the depth of the talent on their roster, coach Steve Kerr is finding it tough to get a handle on what his best line-up looks like. However, what has emerged is the leadership on display from James and Stephen Curry. While both players are approaching the end of their careers they are both enjoying the additional responsibility of leading Team USA and in crunch time it is these two with the ball in their hands. Coincidentally, these two all-time greats were born in the same hospital in Akron, Ohio.

Serbia - 5.9 

Serbia have one thing that no other team does. Nikola Jokic. The best player in the world, reigning and three-time MVP. They are also a good team without Jokic, Serbia won the silver medal at last year’s FIBA World Cup losing to Germany by six points.

The Denver Nuggets centre is coming into the Olympics off the back of another outstanding season with his personal averages for points, rebound, assists and shooting percentage all in the league’s top ten. He will have Bogdan Bogdanavic and Vasilie Micic spacing the court with their threats from beyond the arc. However, their roster does have the lowest amount of NBA minutes of any of the top six teams in the competition.

Despite having Jokic on the floor, they were beaten comfortably by the USA in one of their warm-up matches in Abu Dhabi. 

France - 14.0

The hosts managed to reach the gold medal game at Tokyo 2021 and since then they have added a rather significant player. Victor Wembenyama is the biggest thing in the NBA right now, both literally - he’s 7ft 4in - and figuratively, after just one season in the league he looks destined to be its next superstar. He was taken first in last year’s NBA draft by the San Antonio Spurs and despite only turning 20 in January, he is already making a big impact on the floor.

Thanks to his height and 8ft wingspan he already tops the blocks per game metric with 3.6, the next closest player is on 2.4. But France aren’t all about Wemby, they also have four-time and reigning NBA defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert. While their backcourt may have improved from Tokyo, the same can’t be said for the frontcourt. Neither Evan Fournier and Nando De Cole are not getting any younger, if France are to get a medal then they will need Wemby to carry them there.

Canada - 15.0

Apart from the US, the Canadians have the most NBA players on their roster, only Melvin Ejim has never played on an NBA floor. Their backcourt of All-NBA first team Shai Gilgous-Alexander (SGA) and Jamal Murray has the potential to be absolutely devastating.

At last year’s FIBA World Cup they beat the US 127-118 in the third-place play-off to claim their first medal at a tournament since the 1936 Olympics. Their back court does not quite have the same star power but it will include Lou Dort, RJ Barrett and 2022 NBA champion Andrew Wiggins. 

Canada faced the US in the first match both sides played this summer. The US ran out 86-72 winners despite facing a double digit deficit early on. 

Germany - 20.0

You would have thought the reigning world champions might be a bit higher up this list, but the lack of star power means they are fifth favourite for gold. Their 92-88 loss to the USA last Monday proved they have real hopes of a medal. While most members of the US team are playing together for the first time at the Games, the Germans have got ten of the players who won them the World Cup last year.

From an NBA standpoint they are led by the Orlando Magic’s Franz and Moritz Wagner, with the experienced Dennis Shröder playing point guard. Despite the loss to the US, Germany’s preparation for the Games has been good as they beat hosts France on French soil in the build up.

Prediction: Winner - USA @ 1.25

Despite not having the easiest time in the showcase games it is incredibly hard to look past the United States, the quality of the players at their disposal is so much better than the other countries. 

Winner w/o USA - Germany @ 10.0

When the talent levels are roughly equal, team chemistry becomes very important and Germany have that in abundance. They are also coming off the back of a World Cup win and without any of their star players going on deep play-off runs in the NBA they are fresh and ready to go.