NFL Wild Card Weekend Tips and Predictions

The NFL playoffs are finally here and, while the Eagles and Chiefs relax on their bye, six Wild Card match-ups will determine who else progresses to the next round. Tom Collins offers his quickfire analysis for each game.

Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Kick-off: 9.35pm GMT Saturday

Brock Purdy has taken to the NFL like a duck to water and has led his San Francisco 49ers into the playoffs on the back of a ten-game winning streak. Not only does Kyle Shanahan’s team boast the best defence in the league, but San Fran has also scored 30 or more points in seven games during that period. This group is ready for a deep post-season run.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks scraped through to the Wild Card round courtesy of a Detroit Lions victory over the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. Geno Smith is a genuine contender for Comeback Player of the Year given his composure in the pocket and accuracy in finding star wideouts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but it’s their defence that has proved less-than-par this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo's injury has allowed rookie quarterback Brock Purdy to shine

The 49ers are 9.5pt favourites on the spread and, although that number seems dangerous given they’re starting a third-string rookie quarterback, they just have way too much talent and better play callers on both sides of the ball. Take San Fran.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -9.5 @ 1.91

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

Kick-off: 1.15am GMT Sunday

There has been plenty to like about the LA Chargers’ route to the playoffs. Justin Herbert, who nursed a rib injury in the middle part of the season, has come back firing with the help of Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, both of whom are healthy. However, deep threat Mike Williams remains on the injury report. They had their spot booked in before their defeat against Denver in week 18, so put a line through that result.

As good as the Chargers have been, the Jaguars have performed better. Clemson alumni Trevor Lawrence is finally showing why he was drafted first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, while his college teammate Travis Etienne has carried the rock with power and precision. This game sets up nicely for Jacksonville’s star running back as the Chargers have allowed a 100-yard rusher in six of their last eight games.

Given their ability to move the ball on a consistent basis and home field advantage, I’m pretty surprised that the Jaguars aren’t favourites in this match-up. Travis Etienne can secure two or more touchdowns as the Jaguars cause a minor shock.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @ 1.91

Miami Dolphins (+13) @ Buffalo Bills (-13)

Kick-off: 6.05pm GMT Sunday

Fans of the Miami Dolphins must be cursing their luck as the one-time bona fide Super Bowl contenders now limp into the playoffs with numerous crucial injuries. Not only is starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ruled out, but back-up Teddy Bridgewater won’t be taking to the field either. RB1 Raheem Mostert is also likely to miss the game with a hand injury, while Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are clearly banged up.

Rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson will again lead this team, but he hasn’t impressed in two games as the starter (one touchdown, three interceptions) and will struggle to drive down the field against a rock solid Buffalo Bills defence.

The Bills have added motivation after Damar Hamlin’s injury and admirable recovery, and have looked far more efficient on offence in the latter part of the season. Coming into this match-up on a seven-game winning streak, during which time they have scored 30 or more points on six occasions, I’m expecting another whitewash against a weakened Dolphins roster.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills -13 @ 1.91

New York Giants (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Kick-off: 9.40pm GMT Sunday

This game features two teams that have failed to convince me this season. The Minnesota Vikings have home field advantage after taking the NFC North with an impressive record of 13-4 (8-1 in their own stadium), but all bar two of those successes came in tight one-score games and they were readily blown out of the water by the Packers in week 17.

Of course, a team that boasts Justin Jefferson at receiver is always going to prove dangerous. But it’s Minnesota’s defence that has provided cause for concern - they gave up the second-most yards per game (388.7) and fifth-most points per game (25.1) this year and can be considered weak in all areas.

They face the New York Giants, who rely heavily on running back Saquon Barkley - if they can’t get him going then this offence sucks. However, these two teams faced off just three weeks ago and, although the Vikings won 27-24, it was the Giants who played the better game (accumulated 445 yards on offence) and only lost due to an inspired fourth-quarter comeback.

I have no real desire to bet in this game - the spread looks bang on the money - but, if pushed, I would be tempted by the over in the total points market.

Prediction: Over 48.5 points @ 1.91

Baltimore Ravens (+9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5)

Kick-off: 1.15am GMT Monday

Only the aforementioned San Francisco 49ers finished their season better than the Cincinnati Bengals, who won eight straight and could be on the march to another Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow yet again confirmed himself as an elite signal caller, while the tag team of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at receiver presents an abundance of problems for opposing corners.

You don’t have to go back too far to find the most recent match-up between these sides as they played just seven days ago. Cincinnati beat Baltimore 27-16, but they were leading 24-3 at the half and took their foot off the pedal with victory assured.

Joe Burrow: has played lights-out through the second half of this season

With Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson set to sit out once again and a complete lack of talent at receiver, thus making their offence extremely one-dimensional, there is no reason to believe that Baltimore will reduce the margin between themselves and the Bengals from week 18.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 @ 1.91

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Kick-off: 1.15am GMT Tuesday

Save the best until last, right? Monday Night Football will see a hotly anticipated clash between Dak Prescott and Tom Brady, though neither have put up their expected numbers over the course of the season. While Prescott has been loose and inaccurate with the ball in hand, Brady has been troubled by inconsistent play from his receiving corps.

Mike Evans put a stop to that in week 17 with a headline-writing 10 catches for 203 yards and three touchdowns, so his presence on the field will at least provide a comfort blanket for his 45-year-old quarterback.

Despite all the talk of the passing game, this match-up might be won and lost in the trenches. Who will establish their rushing offence the best? With Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the Cowboys’ backfield you would assume the road team has the edge, but Tampa are sure to load the box and force Prescott to win this game with his arm.

This could be a bit of a defensive stalemate in the first half, and I would rather back the under (45.5 total points) rather than either team in what is likely to be a close and captivating game.

Prediction: Under 45.5 points @ 1.91