NFL Week 5 Betting Tips: Red-hot Texans feature in Tom Collins’ Sunday accumulator

I have officially learned my lesson to leave the Cincinnati Bengals alone until Joe Burrow’s calf is fully healed and their offensive line figures out how to block edge rushers. What better way to start a column than an admission?

Week five of the 2023 NFL season will grace our screens this week and there’s a fantastic slate of games scheduled. Without further ado, let’s get into the picks. Singles and an accumulator are usually advised, but you stick to the latter bet type this week.

Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday BST

The Atlanta Falcons have returned home after a miserable trip to London. Arthur Smith’s team mustered just seven points against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Wembley Stadium last week, largely due to a dismal display put on by quarterback Desmond Ridder, who lost a fumble and threw two interceptions. 

After starting the season with two consecutive victories, the Falcons have fallen to 2-2 and have scored just 13 points in their last two games. Without star player Bijan Robinson that total might be zero. Now they face the Houston Texans, who put up 37 points against the Jaguars and 30 points against the Steelers to defy the odds and win as underdogs twice in a row.

Somehow the CJ Stroud-led Texans are outsiders to get the job done once again, so I have to stick them in this week’s accumulator. With young wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell seemingly open on every play as well as boasting a stout defensive unit, the Texans can inflict further pain on this drab Falcons side.

Prediction: Texans +1.5 @ 10/11

New York Jets (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday BST

Just how much importance should you put on the incredible comeback that the Denver Broncos posted last week? Down 28-7 to the Chicago Bears with 15 seconds remaining in the third quarter, the Broncos rallied to win 31-28 and get off the mark for the season. A victory in that manner can inspire a team, but I have my doubts it will turn the tables in this instance.

My biggest concern is that they have looked awful on defence all season. Not only did they allow 70 points against the Miami Dolphins, but the Washington Commanders also put up 35 against them back in week two. Furthermore, the Broncos have allowed the most yards per game in the league this season (461.5) by some considerable way and are by far the worst team against the run.

The New York Jets will be looking at that statistic and licking their lips as they have two dynamic running backs who will take advantage of the wide-open lanes. Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook should tally a healthy number of yards (and touchdowns!) this week and that can help the Jets, who gave the Kansas City Chiefs a run for their money on Sunday, cover the spread.

Prediction: Jets +2.5 @ 10/11

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (+4)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday BST

The Minnesota Vikings have the third-most passing yards per game this season (287.3) but just the 16th-most points per game (22.5). That tells you two things: they are failing to convert redzone opportunities into touchdowns and their rushing attack has been pretty shocking.

Of course, Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockensen will get their catches and I’m sure the Vikings will look threatening on more than one occasion when they face the Chiefs this weekend. But teams that are this one dimensional often come unstuck against Super Bowl contenders and I’m convinced they will fall short once again in front of their home crowd.

Kansas City have won three straight after an opening day defeat against the Lions and seem to be warming up for the middle part of the season. We’re yet to see Travis Kelce really dominate, or any of their receivers have breakout games, but everyone is playing their part and Isiah Pacheco continues to be a stud in the backfield. Another team effort with Patrick Mahomes at the controls will give the Chiefs another win.

Prediction: Chiefs Money Line @ 1/2

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Kick-off: 1.20am Monday BST

San Francisco simply has a better team than Dallas right now. Under the tutelage of Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are averaging a whopping 31.3 points per game this season and are unbeaten without really breaking sweat. Another home game awaits at Levi’s Stadium and backing against them would prove rather foolish right now.

The 49ers rely on just three things to win. The health of running back Christian McCaffrey; the calmness and precision of Brock Purdy, and their defence showing up. There has been a tick in each box after every game so far this season and there’s little to suggest that will change during Primetime.

I don’t want to completely rule out the Cowboys because they have a playoff calibre roster, but I need to see this team beat someone good before I tip them in a match-up like this. Their three victories have come against the New York Giants, New York Jets (Aaron Rodgers got injured early so their gameplan went out the window) and New England Patriots. Hardly awe-inspiring!

Prediction: 49ers Money Line @ 4/7

NFL Week 5 Recommended Bets

Texans @ Falcons: Texans +1.5 @ 10/11
Jets @ Broncos: Jets +2.5 @ 10/11
Chiefs @ Vikings: Chiefs to win Money Line @ 4/7
Cowboys @ 49ers: 49ers to win Money Line @ 4/7
Accumulator pays: 8/1