NFL Week 16 Tips: Tom Collins provides his five-team Christmas Acca

The 2022 NFL season is drawing to a close and numerous teams have crucial must-win clashes over the Christmas period. Here, expert Tom Collins offers his week 16 predictions.

Atlanta Falcons (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Kick-off: 6pm GMT Christmas Eve

Ravens’ starting quarterback Lamar Jackson has been ruled out of this home match-up against the Falcons and, although that reduces my confidence in taking Baltimore -7, I’m still happy to back this Tyler Huntley-led offence at a shorter price on the Money Line.

The Ravens sit one game behind the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North and need to continue piling the pressure on as they seek a playoff spot. Their offence faltered against the Browns last week in a 13-3 loss, but this Falcons defensive unit isn’t anywhere near as sturdy (ranked 28th overall) and Mark Andrews is expected to make several big plays. 

Establishing the run game is crucial for the Falcons, but Desmond Ridder failed to sparkle on his first start against the Saints last week and now faces the second-best run defence in the league. Take the Ravens in your Christmas Eve acca.

Prediction: Ravens to win Money Line @ 1.3

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ New England Patriots (+3)

Kick-off: 6pm GMT Christmas Eve

The end to New England’s game against the Raiders last week was WILD. Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson was given the ball on a draw to wind down the clock and take the game to overtime, but he inadvertently lateraled to Jacobi Meyers, who then decided to toss the ball back 30 yards into the arms of Raiders’ edge rusher Chandler Jones. The rest is history.

Many will anticipate a bounce back for Bill Belichick and the Patriots as they host the Bengals, but Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They have won eight of the last nine, boast a power-packed offence and a Lou Anarumo-inspired defence that is wreaking havoc. 

Joe Burrow: leading the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs

Our traders have inputted the Bengals with a -3 handicap on the spread, but that number is dangerous in a likely one-score game, so I’ll select the Bengals on the Money Line and expect it to land.

Prediction: Bengals to win Money Line @ 1.5

New York Giants (+4) @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Kick-off: 6pm GMT Christmas Eve

The New York Giants halted their freefall with a 20-12 victory over the Washington Commanders in a crucial divisional battle last week. Playoff hopes remain alive, but establishing the run with Saquon Barkley remains a necessity if the Giants are going to win games - they just have nothing going through the air.

I have maintained this theory that the Minnesota Vikings aren’t anywhere near as good as their 11-3 record suggests, but they just keep pulling victories out of the bag in close, one-score games. Last week, the Vikings recorded the biggest comeback in NFL history with a 39-36 overtime success against the Indianapolis Colts after trailing 33-0 at halftime. 

Momentum is huge in sports and that surprising victory will have provided added confidence and inspiration for each and every player in that Minnesota locker room. Expect the prolific offence to continue the reign of destruction as they cover the spread this week.

Prediction: Vikings -4 @ 1.91

Washington Commanders (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Kick-off: 9.05pm GMT Christmas Eve

The talking point here is the return of Chase Young, one of the best edge rushers in the game, for the Washington Commanders. His impact on an already strong defensive line should cause 49ers’ rookie quarterback Brock Purdy a few problems, but it might not be enough to swing this game in the road team’s favour.

San Francisco, along with the aforementioned Bengals, are playing the best and most consistent football in the league at the moment and have won seven straight. Purdy has picked up the offence with consummate ease following injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, and Christian McCaffrey’s addition has helped to elevate this team to a new level.

Don’t expect too many points in this game, but the majority should be put up by the San Francisco 49ers.

Prediction: 49ers to win Money Line @ 1.34

Green Bay Packers (+4) @ Miami Dolphins (-4)

Kick-off: 6pm GMT Christmas Day

As a Green Bay Packers fan, this Christmas Day match-up may end in tears. Matt LaFleur’s side is hanging onto post-season hope after thumping the beleaguered Rams last week, but they still need to win their final three games (Dolphins, Vikings and Lions) to earn a Wild Card spot. That doesn’t look overly likely.

The Packers need to get Aaron Jones rolling early if they are to cause Miami issues, especially given the ease in which the Dolphins seem to score on every opponent they face. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s run defence is of serious concern - they continue to be gashed on the ground and can’t afford to do that here.

If Raheem Mostert gets going for the Dolphins, expect play-action passes to become a weapon for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be almost impossible to cover if that happens, and the Dolphins should claim their first victory in four games while covering the spread.

Prediction: Dolphins -4 @ 1.91

NFL Week 16 Tips

Baltimore Ravens Money Line @ 1.3
Cincinnati Bengals Money Line @ 1.5
Minnesota Vikings -4 @ 1.91
San Francisco 49ers Money Line @ 1.34
Miami Dolphins -4 @ 1.91

Accumulator odds: 9.53 decimal, 8.53-1 fractional