NFL Week 11 Tips: Take Cincinnati to exact their revenge against the Steelers

The 2022 NFL season is as competitive as ever and multiple teams still have a realistic chance of making the postseason. Here, expert Tom Collins offers his week 11 predictions.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (+6)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday GMT

The Washington Commanders dominated the time of possession against the Eagles last week - 40 minutes compared to 20 minutes - and by keeping quarterback Jalen Hurts off the field and converting 12 of 21 third downs, they earned themselves a surprise victory over Philadelphia, who were previously unbeaten.

Not only was the Eagles’ offence sat on the sideline for a large part of that game, but they didn’t do much when they were on the field either. Washington’s stout defence held them to just 21 points, their second lowest total of the year, and now Philadelphia travel to Indianapolis to face a similar tough defensive group. 

The Colts have given up the fourth fewest yards per game, and average just over 20 points conceded. Meanwhile, the Eagles have given up just 18 points per game and the third fewest total yards. Everything screams that you should back the total points under then, right? Wrong, I’m taking the over!

The line is set at 44, which is pretty low given the Eagles have averaged 27 points this year (the over has hit in six of Philly’s nine games). There is also good reason to expect more points from the Colts as Matt Ryan has returned to the offence and star running back Jonathan Taylor is back from injury. They looked rejuvenated last week under Jeff Saturday’s control and I see them putting up 20 points this week. If they do that, this over hits.

Prediction: Over 45 @ 1.91

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday GMT

Remember week one? The Cincinnati Bengals were 6.5pt favourites against the Pittsburgh Steelers but ended up losing 23-20 in overtime. Now it’s time for the Bengals to right that wrong. 

The Bengals were comfortably better than Pittsburgh in that game - they had 432 yards compared to the Steelers’ 267 and totalled 50% on third downs, but Joe Burrow was peppered throughout - he was sacked seven times and threw four interceptions. Nevertheless, the Bengals still had chances to win the game in regular time, when a PAT was blocked, and overtime, when Evan McPherson shanked a 29-yard field goal.

They improved into Super Bowl contenders prior to their bye last week and, although they are still without star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, I don’t think that will stop them putting up a good amount of points on Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have been better in recent weeks, but their offence still ranks 31st of 32 for points per game, while they are giving up the third-most passing yards on defence. Take the Bengals -3.5 to exact their revenge! 

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ 1.91

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)

Kick-off: 9.25pm Sunday GMT

Does Justin Jefferson play? He missed two practices with a toe injury this week after absolutely dominating the Buffalo secondary when his Minnesota Vikings needed him most last Sunday. If Jefferson doesn’t play, it will be a huge blow for a team that might fall apart without their star weapon.

Even if he does play, just how healthy is he? And how will his injury affect his route-running? You can’t afford to lose a step in the NFL, no matter how good you are.

The Dallas Cowboys fell against the Packers last week, but Green Bay were determined to get that win on the board at Lambeau. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur made the decision to get Aaron Jones involved heavily in the run game, which allowed Christian Watson to spread the field, and he came up clutch in a couple of situations. 

I think Dallas actually played pretty well and I’m happy to take them to bounce back against the Vikings, though I’d be playing Money Line not the -1.5 spread as this is likely to be another close game.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Money Line @ 1.8

NFL Week 11 Predictions

Over 45 (Eagles/Colts) @ 1.91
Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 @ 1.91
Dallas Cowboys Money Line @ 1.8

Accumulator odds: 6.67 decimal, 5.57-1 fractional