NFL Week 10 Tips: Chiefs and Bills can cover the spread on Sunday

The 2022 NFL season is as competitive as ever and multiple teams still have a realistic chance of making the postseason. Here, expert Tom Collins offers his week 10 predictions.

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Chicago Bears (-3)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday GMT

The Chicago Bears went down all guns blazing against the Miami Dolphins last week in an enthralling 35-32 encounter. Quarterback Justin Fields had an efficient day through the air with three passing touchdowns, but it was his ability to run the ball (15 carries for 178 yards and a score) that kept the Bears in that game.

Meanwhile, the Lions defence stepped up to the plate by picking off Aaron Rodgers on three separate occasions, which led to a surprising 15-9 victory over the Green Bay Packers. The Lions now go back on the road (0-3 away from home this year) and face a run-first offence.

I like the Bears here. They have won seven of their last eight games against the Lions, which stretches back to 2018, and have enough firepower on offence to outscore their divisional rivals. Take the money line, though, as the three-point handicap line is a little scary.

Prediction: Chicago Bears Money Line @ 1.7

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday GMT

The Bears and Lions currently trail in the wake of the Vikings in the NFC North. Boasting a record of 7-1, Minnesota looks to be well on their way to the playoffs thanks to efficient play on offence and crucial defensive takeaways, but they haven’t been overly impressive in racking up those victories.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills look to bounce back after a gut-wrenching 20-17 defeat against the New York Jets last week. The Bills were huge favourites but couldn’t get the job done, in part due to a below-par performance from star signal caller Josh Allen. He’s an injury doubt this week, as are leading defensive players Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano and Jordan Poyer.

I’m taking the Bills -3.5 no matter who starts at QB. Obviously there’s a big talent gap between Allen and back-up Case Keenum, but the latter is a wiley veteran who will be hyped up to face his former club if he gets the start. If Allen does start, expect the line to be 5 or 6pts, not 3.5pts. The Bills just have too much firepower for the Vikings, especially at home.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ 1.91

Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday GMT

Jeff Saturday begins his interim coaching tenure at the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, when they travel to Las Vegas to face a Raiders team fresh off a dismal defeat against the Jaguars. The Colts have lost their last three games, while the Raiders’ tally now stands at two.

There’s little to like about this Colts offence unless star running back Jonathan Taylor plays, of course. He was spotted at practice this week and may be set for a return, which would help the Sam Ehlinger-led unit put up a healthy points total.

Las Vegas went quiet on offence after going up 17-0 in the first half against Jacksonville, and eventually lost 27-20. Nevertheless, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Josh Jacobs are always a threat. Does Darren Waller return here?

Despite obvious signs that neither offence is currently clicking and that the Colts are 1-8 on the over/unders this year, sometimes it pays to go against the curve. Expect more emphasis to be put on clean, effective offensive drives and both teams to contribute a fair chunk of points to hit this over.

Prediction: Over 41 points @ 1.91

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Kick-off: 6pm Sunday GMT

Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne have found their groove in recent weeks, but Doug Pederson’s team faces an almighty task to compete with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, especially given their secondary is peppered with injuries.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t have been happy with the offensive performance against the Titans last week and will look to bounce back with a blowout victory. Perhaps it’s time to engage the run game more? Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are certainly capable of moving the sticks. If not, Travis Kelce is always open.

The Jaguars are 4-13 against the spread this year. I think that will become 4-14 as the Chiefs will get this game done early with a litany of offensive touchdowns.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ 1.91

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Chicago Bears Money Line @ 1.7
Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ 1.91
Over 41 points (Colts/Raiders) @ 1.91
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 @ 1.91

Accumulator odds: 11.6 decimal, 10.6-1 fractional