NFL Betting Tips: Tom Collins provides his long-range picks for the 2024/25 season

September is here and you know what that means, right? Yes, football season is back with the NFL getting underway on Thursday to kickstart a huge autumn and winter of excellent sport. Some say this is the best time of the year.

Whether your team is coming off a positive or negative off-season, there is nothing quite like embarking on a new year of American football. A new start brings fresh hope - and that applies to betting, too. Outright markets are untouched and ready to be played in, so here are my selections for some of the most popular categories during the 2024/25 NFL season.

Who will win Super Bowl LIX?

The dominance of the Kansas City Chiefs since quarterback Patrick Mahomes became a starter is clear. They have appeared in four of the last five Super Bowls and lifted the Vince Lombardi Trophy on three occasions. Mahomes et al know how to get to the big stage and perform on it, so it’s no surprise that they are favourites to win yet again.

However, success in sport is very difficult to sustain for a long period of time and, although the Chiefs made a few interesting additions during the off-season, I have no interest in backing them to win the Super Bowl again at 5/1. The same can be said about second elects, the San Francisco 49ers (7/1), who lack depth at key positions.

As much as I think there are contenders in the NFC North - stand-up the Detroit Lions and my Green Bay Packers - I have backed two teams in the AFC for Super Bowl LIX glory. 

The first of them is the Baltimore Ravens, who have a pretty winnable division with the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers looking overmatched this year and the Cincinnati Bengals lacking talent on defence. The Ravens have a pretty weak schedule if you look beyond their week one match-up with the Chiefs and possess huge talent in skill offensive positions.

Derrick Henry’s addition at running back and the predicted growth of star receiver Zay Flowers will provide two huge weapons in a system that already has an exceptional quarterback and good depth at tight end. Baltimore will be a problem for their opponents this year and, providing their defence stays sturdy, I expect them to go all the way.

I have also had a smaller play on the Houston Texans, who don’t have the pedigree for Super Bowl success but they do boast a number of young and impressive playmakers on both sides of the ball. They should also win their division (AFC South) and could surprise a few with a deep run in January.

And where is the value in the MVP market?

Patrick Mahomes is a short-priced favourite for the regular season MVP award, which he has won on two occasions (2018 and 2022). However, we tend to see the best from Mahomes in the playoffs and I always feel that he’s vulnerable in this category, even if the Chiefs have another stellar year.

Given I like the Ravens for the Super Bowl and have commented on their weak division, I quite fancy Lamar Jackson to win MVP for the third time in the last six years and I’m stunned that he’s available at 16/1 with SBK.

We all know that quarterbacks have a huge advantage in the MVP race, so much so that you might as well not consider any other position, and Jackson has the perfect mix of accurate pocket-passer, electric playmaker, and being the face of his franchise to attract attention to himself.

Very few players in the National Football League possess a skill set comparable to Jackson and, providing he remains healthy throughout the regular season, he should be leading the race for the MVP prize. There are far worse 16/1 wagers than this one!

This is banker territory!

All three outright wagers advised so far have been double-figure prices, so I will end this article with a banker. I don’t like the Los Angeles Chargers at all this year and I’m betting them to NOT make the playoffs at 8/11.

The Chargers have only made the post-season three times in the last 12 years and once again have little to no chance of winning the AFC West, which also contains the aforementioned Kansas City Chiefs. That means their only option of progressing is by filling a Wild Card berth and that feels unlikely in their first season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, who has inherited a group of players who have been starved of success.

This team went 5-12 last year and they have a habit of losing close games. As much as I respect Harbaugh and believe he is a much better Head Coach than Brandon Staley, he will be changing this offence into a run-first unit - a transition that hasn’t proved worthwhile in the NFL in recent seasons. Times have changed. 

They will be putting a lot of faith into their average offensive line and weak running back room. If they start getting behind in games, Justin Herbert is going to be called upon to make up chunk yardage. Who is there to catch the ball? Your guess is as good as mine.

Perhaps they will prove me wrong, but I don’t believe they will end the year with a positive record and therefore the playoffs will be well out of reach. Sorry, Chargers fans!

Recommended Bets

Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl @ 10/1
Houston Texans to win the Super Bowl @ 16/1
Lamar Jackson to win MVP @ 16/1
Los Angeles Chargers to NOT make the playoffs @ 8/11