NBA Weekend Tips: Does Kawhi Leonard’s injury point to the Suns rising again?

Losing their top stars could cost the LA Clippers an opportunity to level their NBA Playoff series with the Phoenix Suns in Game four. Mark Woods previews this weekend’s action. 

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers

Tipoff: 8.30pm Saturday BST (Sky Sports Arena) 

Current series score: 2-1 

Injuries have dogged the LA Clippers all season. Kahwi Leonard’s absence on Thursday likely tipped the balance in the Suns’ 129-124 win that regained homecourt advantage for their foes.

It’s notable that Phoenix were held to an average of 109.5 points in their opening two games when he guarded Kevin Durant on 53 possessions.

But Leonard’s impact offensively is also huge for a side missing Paul George. He scored 38 points in Game 1 and 31 in Game 2. As remarkable as LA has been in coping with the frequent unavailability of their two superstars, the NBA is still a game of talent. 

It leaves the Suns as 1.45 favourites to claim a 3-1 advantage on Saturday but all hope might not be lost for the hosts. For one, Leonard played through his sprained knee in Game 2 and may come back despite the quick turnaround. 

Regardless, the Clippers bench is a match for their opponents with more strength in depth. If their All-Star sits, LA’s best option is surely to push for points with Over 226.5 available at 1.88. And two of the three clashes so far have been decided by five points or less which suggests the proximity between the teams. 

What does it say about the Suns’ overall playoff ambitions? They remain third-favourites in the NBA Championship betting at 5.4 and shortest-priced at 2.6 in the NBA Western Conference odds. Not entirely convincing, however, with Durant still assimilating to his new surroundings. The best value in the West surely remains with the Memphis Grizzlies at 10.5.

Prediction: Clippers +5 @ 1.92

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

Tipoff: 12.30am Sunday BST 

Current series score: 1-1 

Beating Miami at home without Giannis Antetokounmpo with a mammoth scoring tally was a real statement of intent from the Bucks. But now they await word on whether their All-World superstar will return for Game 3 in Florida late on Saturday night.

In all likelihood, the Greek Freak will suit up - bad news for the Heat despite winning both their home games in the regular season series. Antetokounmpo was only around for one quarter of the Game 1 defeat for the title favourites. It is assumed he will be fully recuperated from a knock to his back which is why the visitors are 1.44 to regain homecourt advantage. 

Wednesday’s Game 2 was, in so many ways, an anomaly that doesn’t necessarily lead to a repeat. 25 three-pointers in a single content equalled an NBA Playoffs record. Hard to repeat. Both meetings between these two on South Beach this term had 210 points or fewer – and Under 217.5 this time is good value at 2.08. 

Miami is the kind of obstinate team that should be better in the post-season – and can keep the contest close. But you sense that with Milwaukee’s offense clicking and a few days to prepare to limit Jimmy Butler’s options, the tide has turned irrevocably – even if the Bucks have slipped to second favourites in the NBA title odds, behind the Boston Celtics, at 4.9.

Prediction: Heat +4.5 @ 2.02

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

Tipoff: 8.30pm Sunday BST (Sky Sports Arena)

Current series score: 2-1

Protecting homecourt, the Kings finally tasted defeat in their first playoffs in a generation with a 114-97 reverse at the defending champions on Thursday. 

Even without the suspended Draymond Green, Golden State was able to produce the kind of blanket defence that serves them so well. Sacramento, after matching their league-high scoring rate of 120 points in the opening two contests, were held in double figures. 

It was also a reminder that the Warriors are 34-8 this season at home – a very different proposition than on their travels which is why – with Green returning - the Dubs are 1.28 to level the series at 2-2. To accomplish that however, surely they’ll need to pour water on the Kings’ firepower again. 

Prediction: Under 236.5 points @ 2.1

NBA Weekend Tips

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers: LA Clippers +5 @ 1.92
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat: Miami Heat +4.5 @ 2.02
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors: Under 236.5 points @ 2.1