NBA Wednesday Tips: Will the Heat feel the Love against the Cavs?

Kevin Love faces his former team on Wednesday, but the Miami Heat still feel underpowered against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Basketball expert Mark Woods previews three games this evening.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat

Tipoff: 12.30am Thursday GMT 

If the answer is Kevin Love, then there’s probably more than one question to be asked. As the regular season hits the home straight, the Miami Heat face multiple posers as they peer up into the automatic NBA Playoff places and wonder why they are not there.

Last season’s number one seed in the East enters Wednesday night’s duel with the Cleveland Cavaliers trailing the Brooklyn Nets for sixth spot by three games. It’s taken back-to-back wins over the floundering Hawks for the deficit to stay that small. 

Before that, Miami had lost six out of seven (admittedly, during a tough schedule stretch). And, while only the Cavs give up fewer points, the reality is that the Heat’s offense is ice cold – they rank dead last in the entire league at 108.5 points per game.

Acquiring the past-his-prime Love, who has injected a mere 7.5 points per contest so far, hardly shifts the needle. All he adds against his former employers is a little valuable size to an otherwise diminutive frontcourt.

Miami’s key issue? Three-point shooting. They are making just 33.7% - fourth-worst in the NBA. Last term, they topped the charts with Duncan Robinson’s frequent exile to DNPs a symptom of his damaging slump. It’s made it hard for the Heat to contend unless the defence is water-tight, and they’re 23-30 when opponents score 100+ points and just 21-21 versus foes with .500+ records.

Cleveland, who also lean on their defence, is 21-25 when giving up 100 points per game. But they are 19-1 when conceding below the century, which includes a 113-87 win over Miami in November. The Heat avenged that with a 100-97 grinder in January but, with the Cavs averaging 116.0 ppg over their last eight, the Heat may not feel the love so long as they continue to fire blanks.

Prediction: Cavaliers -4 @ 2.22

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets

Tipoff: 12.30am Thursday GMT

Luka Doncic averaged 32.5 points, 8.2 rebounds and 7.3 assists in his first six games playing alongside Kyrie Irving. His new running mate put up 27.3 points, 6.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds over the same spell. An astonishing start. The problem is the Mavericks won only twice and, although they have gone 2-1 since, a lack of chemistry is still plaguing their ranks.

Dallas has given up an average of 119.6 points during its 11 games since Irving’s debut. In the eight duets of their All Star guards to date, that pit has widened to 120.6 – well above the team’s seasonal mark of 113.2. 

That doesn’t bode well as the Mavs are under pressure to remain in the West’s top six and with New Orleans – their Wednesday hosts – a mere 2.5 games back in 10th. Could it even be worth a wild punt on Jason Kidd’s side to miss the post-season entirely with odds presently at 7.6? 

The Pelicans trail in the series 2-1 and lost 111-106 four weeks ago. That came at the very end of a run of ten consecutive losses and they’re 1-6 of late with five of those reverses by 15 or more. Their guests boast enough weapons to shoot their way clear, although New Orleans held free-scoring Golden State to 108 last Saturday so a points frenzy might not be a lock. 

Prediction: Mavericks -5 @ 2.3

Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Clippers

Tipoff: 3am Thursday GMT

The Raptors, according to some, are the Eastern Conference’s most dangerous team. Not because they are suddenly championship contenders, but because they have the talent to burst forth from the play-in pack and make a run at the top six.

Canada’s favourites are 9-4 over their last 13 games and have made the most of a very favourable schedule spell. It gets tougher now, though. Following a five-point reverse to Denver on Tuesday, four of Toronto’s next six are against playoff-bound opponents – starting with a road trip to the slumping LA Clippers.

This might be an opportune moment to come to Los Angeles. The Clips lost five straight before squeezing past a Ja Morant-less Grizzlies last weekend. In regulation over their last six (they’ve had two overtimes), they have a net differential of -2.6.

Alas for the Raps, they’re a pitiful 4-10 when games are decided by three or fewer points. It could be best to look at the visitors at +4.5 at 1.81, but I’m taking the under.

Prediction: Under 228 points @ 2

NBA Wednesday Tips

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat: Cavaliers -4 @ 2.22
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets: Mavericks -5 @ 2.3
Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Clippers: Under 228 points @ 2