NBA Wednesday Tips: Can the Warriors shake off their travel sickness?

The Warriors finally won on the road earlier this week, but they will have to prove whether they are genuine NBA championship contenders on their trip to Dallas. 

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks

Tipoff: 11.30pm Wednesday GMT (BBC One)

It took 11 crushing consecutive defeats before the reigning NBA champions finally won a road game. That came against Houston, which is normally not an accomplishment but this one is worth trumpeting. For the road-shy Warriors on Monday night, it felt nothing short of priceless. 

They avoided an unwelcome slice of history. Only the post-Jordan Bulls, among defending champs, had been more futile when they lost 12 on the bounce on their travels, but still Golden State continues to baffle. How is a roster which – bar one key absentee – is almost unchanged from their title run of 2022 able to go 29-7 at home but be a pitiful 8-29 elsewhere?

It has left the Dubs in sixth place in the Western Conference and their residence in the automatic NBA Playoff spots will be lost on Wednesday if they lose at closest challengers Dallas. Steve Kerr’s side acquires a defensive blindspot when they hop on a plane. Their points differential is +7.3 in San Francisco while they concede 112.3 per contest. Contrast that with numbers of -6.9 and 124. Staggering differences.

The hiatus of Andrew Wiggins, who contributes 17.1 points per night, cannot explain it all. But it is a large factor in the slippage in Golden State’s NBA Championship odds with the markets now giving them only a 4% chance of a repeat. 

The Mavericks, who are 2-4 over their last six games, are 22-14 on their own turf, which includes a 116-113 win over their impending visitors in November. All signs suggest that Kyrie Irving could miss out with a toe problem, while Luka Doncic has missed five straight and is also questionable. This might be a game to await the final roster. 

Subtracting an outlier duel with the lowly Spurs, Dallas has put up just 104.2 points during the rest of its present slump – one that’s now relegated them to eighth in the West. A Doncic return would bump those numbers enough to pose a threat. If not, surely the champs couldn’t falter again, could they? 

Prediction: Warriors -4.5 @ 2.26

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

Tipoff: 11.30pm Wednesday GMT 

The Knicks have risen by stealth from winning 12 of their last 16 games – on an average points differential of +7.1 while scoring 120.1 per.

Excellent on the road where they limit opponents to 112.4, they head into Miami on Wednesday with a 22-14 record on their travels and a 2-0 series record so far over the Heat. Julius Randle has looked like an All Star, too, and he blasted 57 points in a Monday loss to the Timberwolves. 

Miami (1.84 to win) has been the picture of inconsistency. Only once this term has the Heat compiled a four-game winning streak. Damagingly, they are 20-24 against the rest of the East, a factor that’s seen them fail to overhaul Brooklyn for sixth in the Conference so far with time ticking down. Even so, they remain 1.07 to make the post-season. 

Intriguingly, both prior wins for New York over Miami have come by two points. The Knicks are good value on a handicap bet of -1.5 at 2.12. With stakes high, another scrap looms. 

Prediction: Under 219.5 points @ 1.99 

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors

Tipoff: 11.30pm Wednesday GMT 

Such is the closeness of the East playoff race that the Raptors could still make the top six, and they are excellent value at 2.28 to reach the post-season. Here’s why Canada’s finest is worth keeping an eye on. 

Wednesday’s meeting with the Pacers is the start of a four-game home stand with the first three – Indiana, Detroit and Washington – against likely Lottery-bound foes. Then they head for five on the road, but that includes a double-header versus heading-for-the-holidays Charlotte. Their last three bring up Boston (twice) and Milwaukee – it’s possible one of those will be hoping to rest their starters if their seeding is wrapped up. 

That all spells opportunity for Toronto, who has won three out of four and pushed Milwaukee all the way. Fred VanVleet has averaged 26.4 points over his last four games– that’s a boost at just the right time. 

Prediction: Raptors -8 @ 1.81

NBA Wednesday Tips

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks: Warriors -4.5 @ 2.26
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat: Under 219.5 points @ 1.99
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors: Raptors -8 @ 1.81