NBA Wednesday Tips: Ja Jolt might not shake Grizzlies yet

Despite losing star point guard Ja Morant, the Memphis Grizzlies are still a scary beast as they head to Miami on Wednesday. Mark Woods previews three match-ups worth following. 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Miami Heat

Tipoff: 11.30pm Wednesday GMT 

How long Ja Morant will be absent from the NBA is anyone’s guess right now. Whether his time out is to seek therapy or serve a suspension, the only certainty is that the Grizzlies will remain poorer on the court for the non-availability of their All Star showpiece.

The league’s most exciting watch has been exiled to the shadows for his behaviour off the floor. For the current number two seed in the Western Conference, it is the last thing they need. Yet Memphis has rallied remarkably with a trio of successive victories headed into Wednesday’s trip to the Miami Heat. Results leaning on their defence, giving up an average of just 102 points – that against (normally) good offensive squads in the Mavericks and Warriors.

The Grizz are 34-19 with their superstar and now 7-7 without. Their offensive rating slips by four when he is out but it is still proficient. With Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson and Dillon Brooks, this is no one-man show.

Rightly though, the NBA betting markets only give Memphis an 8% chance of the title – without Morant, that should be closer to zero. With 15 games left, they are uncatchable in their division and should wrap that up soon. They should go at least 8-7 down the stretch, enough to win 49 games and retain homecourt in the first round. 

But would they beat the Warriors or Clippers short-handed? Hard to see. Still, don’t sleep on a Grizzlies win in Miami at 2.28. The Heat remain the lowest scoring team in the East at 108.7 points and the Grizz are +4 in points differential.

Prediction: Memphis +4 @ 1.86

Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Tipoff: 12am Thursday GMT

The Timberwolves have battled admirably amid an absence of their own in the shape of Karl-Anthony Towns, who hasn’t played since late-November and has no set date to return. Chris Finch’s side has gone 25-23 since while scoring 116.2 per contest. Exactly, by coincidence, the same offensive rate as the Celtics in that timespan.

Boston has a superior defence, of course. The T-Wolves have only held three foes below 100 points all campaign and one of those ended in defeat. Their previous meeting with the Cs was a 121-109 reverse on Christmas Eve and, although they have been shooting well lately, it hasn’t translated into consistent victories. 

The Celtics are good on the road (21-13), although they’re coming off a hideous loss to the Rockets and their form against elite teams is one key reason why they’ve been ousted as NBA championship favourites.

Minny is a generous 2.36 for a home win but more sensible value at +4 on the handicap at 1.91 – a margin worth looking at when three of Boston’s last four wins have been by four points or less.

Prediction: Under 231 points @ 2.1

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

Tipoff: 2am Thursday GMT 

It’s never too late to snatch homecourt advantage, say the Warriors and the Clippers. The Dubs are 7-3 over their last ten, while the Clippers have won three in a row at home. How do you separate them? 

Even though the reigning champs are 2-1 up in the season series, they have lost their last eight road trips in which they’ve been outscored by -10.8. That’s despite averaging 116.4 on offence. In other words, a trend for a lot of points for little return. 

Prediction: Clippers -5 @ 2.28

NBA Wednesday Tips 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Miami Heat: Grizzlies +4 @ 1.86
Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Under 231 points @ 2.1
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers: Clippers -5 @ 2.28