NBA Wednesday Tips: The Cavaliers can leave the Suns feeling the gloom

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets are among a group of elite contenders with momentum on their side as the new year begins, but can they continue their winning run midweek? 

Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Tipoff: 12am Thursday GMT

A career-defining performance from Donovan Mitchell on Monday thrusted the NBA spotlight firmly on the Cleveland Cavaliers in a way rarely seen since the departure of LeBron James. 

A total of 71 points from the All-Star - equal-eighth on the all-time individual game charts - spurred an overtime victory over the Chicago Bulls. But we should already be taking note of the Cavs. Top four in the ridiculously competitive NBA Eastern Conference (24-14), Cleveland has the best home record in the league at 17-4 headed into Wednesday night’s visit from the slumping Phoenix Suns. 

The Cavs also boast the NBA’s stingiest defence by giving up a mere 106.9 points per contest. This may be a young and untested group, but they are already excelling. Evan Mobley has been huge in fourth quarters where, over this term, the Cavaliers are +2.2 points - equal-first in the NBA - which is a useful factor considering late game spreads. And odds of 3.1 to top the Central Division might not be so ridiculous given the struggles of the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Suns have dropped three straight by an average of 17.6 points, and, with Devin Booker out for four weeks, their offense will be in short supply. Taking the hosts to win with a handicap of -8 could be a sensible choice, but I prefer the under in what should be a low-scoring duel. 

Prediction: Under 220.5 total points @ 1.91

Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers

Tipoff: 3am Thursday GMT

LeBron James is ageless and remains at an All-NBA level. The same, alas, cannot be said for his LA Lakers teammates as they prepare to welcome the Miami Heat. 

While James, who is just past his 38th birthday, is notching an astonishing 29 points and 8.2 rebounds for the Lakers, their struggles are exemplified by a contribution of just 13.2 points per night from Anthony Davis over the past 10 games.

LA is 5-5 in that spell, but they are a mere 5-19 against opponents with a positive record and were beaten 112-98 by Miami on December 28 - the first time the 2020 champs were held under 100 points since October. 

Although the Heat have a negative points differential of -0.4 and a low offensive rating, they have gone 7-3 over their last ten matches and begun to rediscover their mojo. That should make them a solid NBA bet in close encounters with key personnel fit and healthy.

Prediction: Heat -4 @ 1.91

LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets 

Tipoff: 3am Friday GMT

Even with a slender points differential of +1.9, the Denver Nuggets are atop the NBA Western Conference. The markets may only give them a 6.45% chance of claiming the NBA Championships (odds of 13) and Nikola Jokic remains second-favourite for a three-peat as MVP at 3.55, but there’s no doubt that Colorado’s cream of the crop are a contender. 

Mike Malone’s men are 16-9 against opponents with a winning record, while the Los Angeles Clippers have gone 6-12 versus foes with .500+ marks to date. Part of Denver’s strength has been fortitude: only two of their 13 losses have come when leading at the outset of the fourth and they have also gained seven wins while trailing at that point. 

The Clippers have hit a mid-season bump off three consecutive losses and Paul George’s hamstring tweak could sideline him for a second spell this season. Kawhi Leonard being doubtful to play is a true momentum killer and the Nuggets have the firepower to capitalise. 

Prediction: Nuggets -12 @ 1.91

Wednesday’s NBA Tips 

Suns @ Cavaliers: Under 220.5 total points @ 1.91
Heat @ Lakers: Miami Heat -4 @ 1.91
Clippers @ Nuggets: Denver Nuggets -12 @ 1.91

Accumulator odds: 6.97 decimal, 5.97-1 fractional