NBA Wednesday Tips: Fear The Deer no longer as the Bucks hit bump in the road

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s brilliance alone might not be enough to stop the Atlanta Hawks clinching their season series against the Bucks. Basketball expert Mark Woods previews Wednesday’s NBA games.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks

Tipoff: Thursday 12.30am GMT

With largely the same roster as the title-winning group in 2021, and with a totem who is widely regarded as basketball’s best player, it’s little wonder that markets give the Milwaukee Bucks a 16.7% chance of winning it all again – placing them second in the outright NBA Championship odds stakes behind the Boston Celtics. 

Yet, despite the ongoing brilliance of Giannis Antetokounmpo, they don’t currently look like champions-in-waiting. Their below-par form could open the door for the Atlanta Hawks to produce an upset on Wednesday on their home floor.

After starting the campaign 9-0, Milwaukee has gone just 17-14 since as injuries have piled up – particularly with Khris Middleton missing 33 games to date. They are just 6-7 over their last 13 appearances and have lost by over 20 points four times. In that period, their average points differential is -6.5 as they have conceded 118.3 per game, a significant downturn from what was the NBA’s best defence. 

In first quarters especially, the Bucks have been deers in headlights: their average is a league-worst -5.3, rendering the Hawks especially good value on the first half spread at 2.08. There will be inevitable bumps in the road until Middleton returns, although coming from 17 down to beat the Knicks on Monday has provided some relief.

Atlanta has the opportunity to complete a 3-1 regular season series sweep, having won the previous two meetings in November by 19 and 15 points while holding Milwaukee below 107. 

Prediction: Hawks +1 @ 2.06 

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks

Tipoff: Thursday 12.30am GMT

For a team forecast to end up in the Draft lottery, the Indiana Pacers have done a tremendous impersonation of a title contender. 8-2 over their last ten games, they sit one win ahead of the Knicks in the NBA Eastern Conference standings heading into their duel at MSG. 

There’s been some quality victories of late, too, over the likes of Miami, Boston and Cleveland. And the Pacers – who are now 1.55 to make the playoffs - are adept at grinding games out. Of those eight triumphs, only one came by nine points or more - with three by five or less. The surge began following a 109-106 loss against New York when Jalen Brunson scored 30 points to spearhead the Knicks. 

New York, priced at 1.51 for victory, is just 4-6 in their last ten games. Their offence has stagnated, although they have still held opponents to 110.2 points on average. 

Prediction: Pacers +3.5 @ 2.08

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

Tipoff: Thursday 3am GMT

Amid a mid-winter gloom, the Suns found some light with a 125-113 upset of the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday, even with Steph Curry returning from injury, flip-flopping the two rivals in the Western Conference Play-in placings.

There’s a more daunting challenge in the shape of the West-leading Nuggets on Wednesday. Despite their status, the markets still aren’t showing Mike Malone’s men much love with their NBA title odds pushed out to 12.

But following 11 consecutive home victories – including a 128-125 overtime triumph over Phoenix on December 26 – Denver is surely going to be too hot to handle. The visitors have gone a mere 2-8 over their past ten games on a -7.6 differential, a spell in which their hosts are +8.3. The Suns are also just 2-3 in back-to-backs.

Prediction: Nuggets -9.5 @ 1.6 

Wednesday’s NBA Tips 

Bucks @ Hawks: Atlanta Hawks +1 @ 2.06
Pacers @ Knicks: Indiana Pacers +3.5 @ 2.08
Suns @ Nuggets: Denver Nuggets -9.5 @ 1.6

Accumulator odds: 6.9 decimal, 5.9-1 fractional