NBA Sunday Tips: Denver Nuggets continue to shoot for the stars

Home comforts suit the Denver Nuggets as they pan for gold on Sunday against the Brooklyn Nets. Basketball expert Mark Woods previews three match-ups this evening and provides his bets.

Brooklyn Nets @ Denver Nuggets

Tipoff: 7.30pm Sunday GMT (Sky Sports Arena) 

The elevated altitude of Denver has always provided the NBA’s most fertile home advantage, particularly when the Nuggets are riding high. And prowess on their own court is the biggest reason why Mike Malone’s men lead the Western Conference standings with a 46-21 record heading into Sunday’s visit from the Brooklyn Nets. 

The Nuggets are a league-best 30-5 in their own building and it is a bedrock all round. They out-score opponents by an average of 10.8 points (a margin second only to Memphis) while shooting a league-best 52% and scoring 120.6 points. That’s +7.8 on their output on their travels. No wonder gaining the number one overall seed is a huge target.

It's still a surprise that the markets only give Denver a 7% chance of lifting the NBA Championship. The Phoenix Suns’ re-tooling has pushed their rivals out to 3.6 to even top the West. Odds skewed by the wisdom that their strengths will not be as pronounced in the post-season. Their consistency suggests the flaws are overblown.

Kevin Durant’s latest injury may only keep him out of the Suns’ line-up for three weeks but that’s valuable time lost to integrate his skills. Ja Morant’s availability for Memphis is not immediately clear. Momentum is a valuable commodity, which strengthens the Nuggets cause, as well as the MVP case for Nikola Jokic. Barring a sentimental vote for Joel Embiid, the Serb’s NBA Most Valuable Player odds of 1.15 will surely continue to shrink. 

The Nets have rallied impressively since Durant’s exit, going 5-5 in their last ten games, which includes an overtime victory over Minnesota on Friday. But they’ve been outscored by an average of -2.9 while putting up just 112.4 on the board. Those numbers are easy pickings for Denver, but perhaps this game hits the over.

Prediction: Over 230 points @ 1.86

Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers

Tipoff: 10pm Sunday GMT (Sky Sports Arena) 

On a stretch of five 30-point scoring games, Joel Embiid will continue to press his lingering MVP case when the Sixers host the Wizards. Third in the East, but less than three games behind the Boston Celtics, it’s not a time to sleep on their juicy odds of 8.8 to sneak past their old rivals to top the Atlantic Division with 16 fixtures left on the schedule.

And here’s why. The Sixers have gone 9-3 over their last 12 games, which includes four victories in succession. Spurred by Embiid and James Harden’s 1-2 punch, they’re incredibly adept at getting to the foul line and converting, with an 88% make-rate in that spell. 

But over the season, Philly have also become very good closers. They own the second-best differential in the fourth of +1.8 with a 9-5 record in games decided by three points or less. 

Washington has posed them problems, winning the past two meetings this season by five and ten points. Yet, the Wizards have lost four out of five – even if they are a persistent bunch with only one of their previous ten games decided by more than ten points.

Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers -6 @ 1.71 

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Tipoff: 11pm Sunday GMT (Sky Sports Arena)

The struggling Spurs are in, relatively speaking, a purple patch with three wins from their last five games. Such is the vagaries of life at the foot of the NBA that the two losses came at the hands of the even-worse Rockets. And yet on Friday they knocked off Denver by eight. Every dog has its day!

If only the Spurs could shoot well, consistently. They are a remarkable 15-3 when besting their opponents field-goal percentage. Some hope may arise that the Thunder convert a lowly 45.5% on their travels, below the respectable 47.9% that San Antonio makes at home. 

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs -3 @ 2.66

NBA Sunday Tips

Brooklyn Nets @ Denver Nuggets: Over 230 points @ 1.86
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers: 76ers -6 @ 1.71
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs: Spurs -3 @ 2.66