NBA Sunday Tips: Mavericks seek special surge to stop slide

The Dallas Mavericks, who have hit a mid-season defensive funk, will take on the low-scoring LA Clippers, while Miami Heat look for a quick double over the New Orleans Pelicans.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks

Tipoff: 7.30pm Sunday GMT 

It was looking all so good for the Mavs - until it wasn’t. Dallas has recorded five losses from their last six games heading into the weekend, while giving up an abysmal 125.7 points per contest and getting outscored by an average of 10.2. 

No wonder Jason Kidd let fly following a midweek collapse to Atlanta. However, Dallas can often count on the offensive brilliance of Luka Doncic, who led them in scoring in 26 of their opening 36 games this term. He remains an MVP candidate. 

Yet Doncic, for all his gifts, is not a totemic stopper. And, although he has remained a consistent, league-leading scoring menace, the Mavericks need to learn how to disrupt at the other end to remain in the automatic playoff places in an incredibly competitive race in the NBA Western Conference.

Among those in pursuit are the LA Clippers, despite losing nine out of 11 coming into 2023. Beating Dallas 113-101 was one of the streak-interrupters with the excuses running out now that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are (frequently) restored to the line-up. The Clippers are 13-9 when Leonard plays and 10-15 when he is out.  Whether he will ever be the force of old remains up in the air.

Dallas will have to lean again on points production and trust their guests misfiring offense gives enough breathing space. With Christian Wood – averaging 18.4 points per game - out, it could be a day to look at the under total points, but the main target is finding a spark as the vital pre-All Star period looms. 

Prediction: Dallas -1.5 @ 1.91 

New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat

Tipoff: 8.30pm Sunday GMT (Sky Sports Arena) 

Is revenge a dish best served… warm? The Pelicans will hope so after losing 124-98 to Miami in New Orleans on Thursday with the Heat seizing control in the first quarter and refusing to recant.

It further dented the Pel’s fading hopes of catching Memphis in the race for the Southeast Division title and meant they have gone 3-5 since Zion Williamson’s latest injury, one which is set to keep him out for at least another week.

It should be noted that all those losses have come to .500+ opponents with New Orleans’ offense regressing to an average of 112.6 in that spell – exactly four below their norm. With a net differential of -3.3 during this slide, it suggests that Williamson’s extra oomph will put them speedily back to winning ways.

Miami, on a 7-3 tear headed into Friday’s trip to Dallas, has begun to find its feet again and it is their defence that has taken hold, conceding a throttling mark of 106 per night amid that renaissance. They remain the NBA’s lowest scoring team this season in a deadlock with the Clippers but that too is on an upward swing.  

On their home court, a mirror image of midweek seems quite possible with the Heat attractive at -5 although expect the Pelicans to be readier at the outset.

Prediction: Under 218 total points @ 1.91

New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors

Tipoff: 11pm Sunday GMT (Sky Sports Arena) 

It’s been road wins every time when the Raps and Knicks have dueled this term, but Toronto have set up a chance to clinch the season series 3-1 with a Sunday win on Canadian soil.

In a highly competitive Atlantic Division, it’s the Raptors who sit bottom and have disappointed – but they are not fully out of the playoff equation. While New York is just one place above, they look like a lock to make the post-season with enough consistency engrained. 

In Toronto’s corner is a decent home record and a knowledge that a talented group is not far removed from victories. Only one of their previous six losses before Friday’s clash with the Celtics came by more than ten points. And they did squeeze out a 123-121 overtime win at the Knicks last week.

It could, in truth, have gone either way. So expect another close one with the Knicks at +2 a solid option. I’ll take the under instead.

Prediction: Under 222 total points @ 1.91

NBA Sunday Tips

LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks: Mavericks -1.5 @ 1.91
New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat: Under 218 total points @ 1.91
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors: Under 222 total points @ 1.91