NBA Finals Tips: Can the Denver Nuggets shine to halt Miami Heat’s storybook run?

When these upset-laden playoffs began, the betting markets decreed that the Miami Heat had less than a 1% shot of acquiring the title. As the first eighth seed ever via the play-in participant to reach the NBA Finals, the newly-crowned Eastern Conference champions have shattered the form book.

The Denver Nuggets stand between the Cinderellas and a storybook conclusion to this run. But can the Heat shrug off the NBA Championship odds and pull off this historical longshot?

The NBA Finals will begin on Thursday night when Denver opens up the best of seven series as 1.27 favourites in Game 1. The Nuggets, even as top seeds in the West, were not widely expected to be here either. Now the markets give them a 54% chance of reigning over the Association for the first time with their rivals priced at 4.2 to pull off a shock. 

Denver has one distinct advantage: rest. It’s been over nine days since they swept the Lakers to advance, affording them priceless recuperation. Beneficial not just for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, but a roster that has impressive depth and the asset of season-long continuity with minimal injuries. 

The Nuggets have averaged 116.4 points per contest in going 12-3 in this post-season so far on a ridiculous differential of +8.3. Offensively, that translates into 119.7 points per 100 possessions with Jokic – the favourite to be Finals MVP at 1.34 – as the totem in their immensely potent pick-and-roll. 

But their defence shouldn’t be overlooked. Despite some torrid showings against the Suns, they have held opponents to 108.1 per contest, just 0.7 more than a Heat team which has scored 111.7 points per night. And Michael Malone has had ample time to plot two available scenarios for whichever beast emerged from the East. Having taken the regular season series between these foes 2-0, with wins of 124-119 and 112-108, those small margins may matter.

As does homecourt advantage for Denver given they are 8-0 in these playoffs and 42-7 over the entire campaign. How will Miami cope with a rapid switch to the mile high altitude and minimal respite after their gruelling seven-game rollercoaster of a duel with the Boston Celtics? 

Their reserve unit has woken up in the playoffs with Tyler Herro slated to return in time for Game 3 to add to their three-point assault. Jimmy Butler, priced at 4.4 for MVP, has been a force of nature in returning the Heat to the Finals for the second time in four years. 

There is a strong wagering option on the visitors on the spread of +8.5 at 2.02 in Game 1 given how scrappily they play. The Heat’s chances across the series surely rest on keeping the Nuggets to around 115 points or fewer. 

Yet the top seeds will lean on Aaron Gordon to douse Butler and quell the legend of Jimmy Buckets, who has averaged 28.5 ppg in these playoffs. Murray, seeking further validation, may be a sleeper pick for MVP at 11. And can Bam Adebayo, or his colleagues collectively, really hope to corral Jokic? The Serb is putting up 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists and has been on another planet.

The NBA Finals is the ultimate stage for the greats. This is an opportunity for the Joker to lay all his cards on the table. And it’s why the Nuggets look a safe bet to deny Miami another scalp and achieve a championship conquest.

Finals forecast: Denver in 5 games

Game 1 Prediction: Denver to win and Over 219.5 points @ 2.56