NBA Finals 2023 Game 3 Tips: Who will break the deadlock on Wednesday night?

Mike Malone’s warnings were vociferous but the Denver Nuggets couldn’t or wouldn’t take heed. Rediscovering the shooting touch that has under-pinned their shock run to the NBA Finals, the Miami Heat blitzed their way to a Game 2 triumph on Sunday that wrestled away homecourt advantage as the best-of-seven series heads for South Beach on Wednesday knotted at 1-1. 

From an 11-point victory to a loss by three, the Nuggets defence let them down badly. But also Miami’s D flipped the switch. As impressive as Nikola Jokic was once again, his running mates were slowed to a crawl. 

It now invites Malone to find an alternative plan to seize back the initiative on the road: how to cool the Heat on the perimeter but also find ways for others – the Serb apart – to break free.

The markets believe the Kings of the West can manage it as they remain NBA Championship favourites at 1.38, and just 4.3 to win out from here and take the series 4-1 despite their miserable road record of 23-25 – one, at least, that points to Denver splitting their next two games in Miami. 

There were obvious flaws in their first reverse since Game 4 of the West semis versus Phoenix. Foremost, a lack of energy in the fourth period as the Heat plugged themselves in. Shades of the Celtics and we know how that turned out.

The guests converted 48.6% - a huge ascent from one-in-three in Game 1. There were open looks in the opener that didn’t fall, as Malone cautioned. The Nuggets cannot allow their hosts to execute and seize the initiative from the very outset again with Miami at 2.08 to hold the upper hand in the first quarter. 

Especially when the Heat are a menace in close situations too. In an extraordinary 64 games this term when on a differential of five points or less inside the last five minutes, they are 39-25 and 7-3 during this postseason. It speaks to their competitiveness but also their nerve.

But Denver did not become a bad team overnight and Malone will be in their ear with reminders aplenty. They’ve only lost consecutive games once in these playoffs and just six times all year, while holding opponents to 105 points or fewer on six occasions in the postseason.

The Nuggets also won 112-108 on their last trip to South Florida and there’s excellent value in a margin for either team to win by fewer than six points at 2.98.

NBA Finals Game 3 Tip

Denver Nuggets to win and Under 214.5 points @ 3.3