NBA Finals 2023 Game 5 Tips: Can the knockout Denver Nuggets deal a fatal blow?

We have learned three critical things in this year’s NBA Playoffs. Never count out the Miami Heat; the Nuggets are much better than most give them credit for, and you should never let Conor McGregor punch a mascot.

Point number three should disbar the MMA legend from on-court shenanigans in perpetuity. The first two seemingly conflicting learnings will be put to the test on Monday night as Denver bids to capitalise on a 3-1 series advantage and clinch their first-ever NBA Championship on their home court.

The NBA title odds don’t lie. The Nuggets are 1.02 to prevail, with Nikola Jokic similarly an almost unbackable 1.0001 to add Finals MVP to his two regular season Most Valuable Player awards. 

In the past two games, the Western Conference champions haven’t so much knocked the Heat to the canvas but simply kept landing enough jabs to the body that a comfortable points decision was the just and inevitable outcome. 

By 15 points in Game 3 and 14 in Game 4, all while holding the Beasts of the East to below 96 for the third and fourth times in this series. On the road as well. Back at home, where they’re 34-7 this term, all hope for the guests seems lost. 

Especially with an offence that’s reverted to the type that left the Heat bottom of the NBA this season. Over their last eight playoff duels, they have managed a miserable 99.4 points per contest on a differential of -6.

In that same spell, Denver is +7.5 while averaging 112.6 points. At home, across the entire post-season, the Nuggets are 9-1 while notching 113.5 points. That’s a rate that will be hard to repel with Colorado’s champions-in-waiting priced at 1.26 to close off the title in Game 5 and 1.95 on the spread of -9 points. 

Their defensive rating in these Finals has been better than the Cavs’ top-ranked D during the regular campaign. As much as Miami’s fighting spirit and Jimmy Butler’s indomitable energy is admirable, the past two games have exposed their weakness - not enough depth. Too much reliance on catching fire from long-range, and too great a load on Jimmy Buckets. 

Jamal Murray has been as irresistible as Jokic. Stepping up in Game 4 when the Serb hit foul trouble has shredded any doubts over his place on the point guard A-List. He is the first player in NBA history to average 10 assists over his initial four Finals appearances, and he and Jokic remain a one-two punch with venom. Enough for a KO? I think so. 

NBA Finals 2023 Game 5 Tips

Denver Nuggets -11.5 @ 2.44