NBA Finals 2023 Game 4 Tips: Don’t count out the Heat just yet

After destroying the Miami Heat by 15 points in Wednesday’s Game 3 of the NBA Finals, the markets are giving the Denver Nuggets a 73% chance of claiming their first NBA Championship.

History bears that out. Teams seizing a 2-1 lead after splitting the two opening duels of the Finals have gone on to take the title on 32 out of 40 occasions. Friday night’s Game 4 is extremely important for the Heat, who are 7.6 to topple their rivals. Only once in 36 attempts has a 3-1 deficit been overcome. 

As a result, things look mightily good for Denver right now. No wonder that Nikola Jokic is a prohibitive 1.09 to be NBA Finals MVP following his 32 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists contribution in Game 3 - his eighth triple-double in his last eleven games. The Serbian star also provided enough defensive firepower to hold the Heat below 95 for the second time in three tries.

A lack of energy was the driver of a third home reverse on the bounce in these playoffs, the hosts claimed. “It just can't happen,” Jimmy Butler warned. “It won't happen again.” Pay heed. And Miami’s admirable resilience is one reason why they shouldn’t be written off just yet. 

Back to the numbers: the Nuggets have only been victorious roughly 50% of the time on the road this term. Getting a triple-double from Jokic and Jamal Murray was a freak abnormality, as was out-rebounding Miami 58-33. Who saw 19 points from Christian Braun coming? Over-performances at the right time, but the Heat can adjust again and recover. 

Jokic and Murray apart, the Nuggets’ other starters combined for just 19 points on 7-for-21 shooting. Their whole team shot 5-18 from three-point range. That surely won’t cut it again, will it? 

That theory is why Miami at 2.48 to knot the series again at 2-2 looks like a good bet. They’re deservedly underdogs still over seven games, but on their own floor there’s an opportunity to ramp up the pressure, especially if they find the shooting touch that has seen them beat the odds over and over again in this gripping post-season. 

NBA Finals 2023 Game 4 Tips

Miami Heat +3.5 points and Over 210.5 total points @ 3.7