NBA Conference Semi-Final Tips: Can 76ers double up without Embiid?

The newly-crowned NBA MVP is set to sit out Game 2 in the Celtics/Sixers series and it may yet tip the balance in their Eastern Conference semi-final towards Boston.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

Tipoff: 1am Thursday BST (Sky Sports Main Event)

A vintage performance from James Harden - the bearded human wrecking ball - led the Sixers to a stunning 119-115 upset in Boston in Game 1 to make light of the absence of this season’s NBA Most Valuable Player, Joel Embiid, who missed the game with a sprained knee. 

Harden’s 45 points were two dozen above his regular season average. With his totemic colleague set to be absent again for Wednesday’s Game 2, can Philly score an unlikely repeat? Odds of 5 on the 76ers poaching a 2-0 lead on the road suggest not. 

Boston, normally an excellent defensive team, completely switched off in the opener. Surely, their guard will not be left down again? The visitors were able to convert over 50% from the field and improved to 12-5 this term with Embiid out. 

Joel Embiid: will miss Wednesday night's game against the Boston Celtics

Harden outscored Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown 15-10 in the fourth quarter but others stepped up. Yet, the Celtics can lean on the pattern of their regular season series which they took 3-1. In those duels Philadelphia were held below 108 points on three occasions, but there should be a considerable adjustment from the hosts.

That reverse hasn’t dented the Celtics’ status as favourite in the NBA Championship betting at 3.15. It’s unthinkable they slip again and, if they return to form, under 215 points should come into play. 

Game 2 Prediction: Boston to win by 6-10 points @ 4

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

Tipoff: 2am Friday BST

The Lakers’ 117-112 Game 1 victory on Tuesday in their Western Conference semi-final series with the Warriors was another chapter in their epic turnaround.

As recently as six weeks ago, the Purple and Gold were long odds to make the playoffs when they languished in 11th place in the West. Now they’re into the NBA’s Elite Eight and one-up on the defending champions. They’re a remarkable 6.6 in the outright odds and third favourite for the title. 

Heady days, propelled by canny pre-deadline trades but also rude health for LeBron James and, significantly, Anthony Davis. His 30 points and 22 rebounds against the Dubs shone through. In going 7-2 so far this post-season, the Lakers have a net points differential of +7.1 in holding opponents to 105.7 per game. 

Contrast that with Golden State whose differential is just +1.3. They have been living dangerously while their rivals are on cruise control, even with Steph Curry’s excellence. But home advantage has spurred Steve Kerr’s side all season amid road woes. Only once – in a three-game slip – have they dropped successive games in San Francisco. A poor start doomed them in the series opener but their adjustments worked – they just came too late. 

The Warriors are 1.91 on a points spread of -5 to rebound and level the series at 1-1 on Thursday. And, in finding a means to limit Davis, they can dent LA’s Hollywood fairytale.

Game 2 Prediction: Under 226.0 points @ 2

NBA Conference Semi-final Tips

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics: Boston to win by 6-10 points @ 4
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors: Under 226.0 points @ 2