NBA Conference Semi-Final Tips May 10

The Celtics’ must contend with more than just Joel Embiid and James Harden to justify their status as NBA title favourites. Basketball expert Mark Woods previews the Conference semi-final games this week.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

Tipoff: 12.30am Wednesday BST (Sky Sports Main Event)

Series tied 2-2. An ice-cold three-pointer from James Harden that gave the Sixers an overtime victory in an enthralling Game 4 leveled their series with the Celtics and turned it, effectively, into a best-of-three.

Joel Embiid has alleviated concerns about his health with consecutive 30-point double-doubles. It has also ensured this is a duel decided by defence. Two teams with contrasting flaws but talents able to score.

In the NBA Eastern Conference semi-final odds, Boston is 1.34 for the win with their guests priced at 3.75. Given that two games so far have been decided by four or fewer points, with each team poaching one on the road, don’t sleep on Philly just yet when they’ve got the momentum from eight wins out of ten while holding opponents to an average of 107.1 points.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown remain terrific for Boston, but there’s been a lack of consistent offensive help. Embiid and Harden have seen running mates emerge to put the Cs under varying pressure. Despite all that, the green machine remain favourites in the NBA Championship betting at 2.84.

There’s an intriguing double for the 76ers on a handicap of +7.5 combined with over 216, especially when only the blowout Game 2 fell below that tally. Solo, Philadelphia is great value with a handicap of +6.5 at 2.14. However, I’m taking the overs.

Game 5 Prediction: Over 216 points @ 2.24

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

Tipoff: 3am Wednesday BST

Series tied 2-2. Was it a shove or a flop? The sideline swipe of Nikola Jokic at Suns owner Mat Ishbia stole the headlines on Sunday and obscured the 129-124 win that brought his team from 2-0 down to level their series with Denver.

Another best of three looms. Phoenix’s offence is clicking, underlined by 36 points apiece from Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in Game 4. However, the Nuggets hold the trump card of home advantage in two of those games.

And on mathematical balance, that may matter. The Suns won their two contests on their own turf by an average of six. Their rivals took their pair by 14, with markets now making them favourites to advance and closing to 2.9 in the NBA Western Conference odds.

Denver, 1.48 to prevail in Game 5, is still hugely reliant on Jokic. If he continues to score big, his side certainly have a chance to cover the spread of -6 at 2. Expect both teams to come out firing early.

Game 5 Prediction: Over 111.5 points in first half @ 1.99

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

Tipoff: 12.30am Thursday BST

Heat lead 3-1. One of two play-in victors – along with the Lakers – who now sit just one win away from reaching the Conference Finals, Miami was relentless in grinding out a 109-101 triumph in Game 4, despite making just three of its first 15 shots in the fourth quarter.

It meant the Knicks had been held below 101 for the third time in this series and the Heat have yet to score more than 109. It ain’t pretty but it’s working.

Now New York must hold serve at Madison Square Garden to force Game 6. Immanuel Quickley’s status is unknown but his absence has been felt. The Knicks are 1.59 to extend the series but they’ll likely need to up the pace and their offence to find a comfort level.

Game 5 Prediction: Over 211.5 points @ 2.1

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

Tipoff: 3am Thursday BST

Lakers lead 3-1. The defending champs are in a desperate hole and now face up to three elimination games against the resurgent LA Lakers. Psychologically scarred surely, having coughed up a lead of 12 before losing 104-101 in Game 4.

It means that LeBron James & Co. have – as improbable as it would have seemed a month ago – risen to 2.4 favourites in the NBA Western Conference betting and are priced at 5 for the championship with the markets predicting a familiar Lakers/Celtics Finals.

Even so, don’t expect the Warriors to collapse meekly. Other than Steph Curry, too many players had off-nights on Monday. The Dubs are 1.4 to win Game 5 and even a small uptick should allow them to extend the series.

Game 5 Prediction: Under 225 points @ 2.04