NBA Conference Semi-Final Tips: Sidelined Paul a possible depth charge for the Suns

Chris Paul’s absence leaves the Phoenix Suns with more problems in trying to overturn a 2-0 deficit to Denver. Basketball expert Mark Woods previews this weekend’s NBA action.

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

Tipoff: 3am Saturday BST 

Down 2-0, the Suns’ route to the NBA Finals will be all the harder if, as forecast, Chris Paul is sidelined until Game 6 of the Western Conference semi-finals. That is if Phoenix even lasts that long.

His de facto deputy Cam Payne has featured for just four minutes and injected a mere 2.5 points, which speaks volumes for their team’s lack of depth outside of their starting line-up. A consequence of rebuilding drastically by acquiring Kevin Durant and having minimal time to construct chemistry among their bench. 

Their reserves contributed a mere four points in the 97-87 loss in Game 2 on 2-of-16 shooting. More of the same and the Suns surely cannot rise again, even if they have averaged 123 points on their own floor in these NBA Playoffs so far and are priced at 1.61 to respond with a win.

Paul has just about held the pieces together, even at the ripe age of 38. Removing his experience throws an even greater load on Durant, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton as headline acts against the supporting cast surrounds MVP runner-up Nikola Jokic.

Jamal Murray went 0-for-9 from three-point range earlier this week but was still effective. The threats are numerous and deadly with Denver now promoted to second in the NBA Championship odds at 5.5.

Phoenix’s best – maybe their only shot – is to attempt to hold the Nuggets in check (perhaps below 100 points once again) and play the patient game. Not a natural fit but a reason why taking Under 222.5 points at 2.2 may be good value and backing the visitors to land what would, historically, be an insurmountable 3-0 advantage at 2.42 is a steal. 

Game 3 Prediction: Denver to win fourth quarter @ 2.08

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

Tipoff: 8.30pm Saturday BST (Sky Sports Arena)

Two lower seeds, two giant chips on collective shoulders. No wonder the Knicks/Heat series in the Eastern Conference semi-finals has been as much of a grind as forecast as the rivals head to Miami tied at 1-1 entering Saturday’s Game 3. 

The hosts averaged 106.5 in their split in the Big Apple, the Knicks are scoring 106. In the Heat’s favour, however, is the likely return of Jimmy Butler whose absence from Game 2 seemed an educated gamble to give him additional time to recuperate from an ankle injury ahead of what is now a best-of-five scrap. 

He is needed, not simply because of his stellar scoring but Miami’s depth is already shredded without Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro. The Knicks have more options but none of them as good as Butler. 

Game 3 Prediction: Over 207 points @ 2.14 

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

Tipoff: 1.30am Sunday BST (Sky Sports Main Event)

Against his Dad’s old team, Klay Thompson had 30 points to right the Warriors ship and level their Western semi with the Lakers at 1-1 headed back to LA on Saturday.

Golden State rode a hot streak from three-point range but also adjusted their starting line-up yet again with JaMychal Green stepping in. More fast breaks and better defence held Anthony Davis to a mere 11 points and checked LeBron James.

All of those can be one-time deals, however. Priced at 1.66 to win Game 3 and 7.4 for the title, the LA Lakers shouldn’t panic, especially appreciating the Warriors’ frequent road woes. But it may point to a more tactical battle ahead.

Game 3 Prediction: Under 225 points @ 2.16

NBA Conference Semi-Final Tips

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns: Denver to win fourth quarter @ 2.08
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat: Over 207 points @ 2.14
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers: Under 225 points @ 2.16