NBA Conference Semi-Final Tips and Predictions

The most talented two teams in the NBA Western Conference duel for a spot in the final four, starting on Saturday, but do the top-seeded Nuggets deserve to be underdogs?

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

Tipoff: 1.30am Sunday BST (Sky Sports Arena)

With all due respect to the Grizzlies and Kings, pitching the Suns against the Nuggets feels very much like the real West Finals. Talent in abundance. Former MVPs jarring against one another. But with intrigue, given the flaws and questions which surround two teams with high ceilings but also the potential to sink to the floor.

Denver, the number one seed in the West, advanced 4-1 in the first round against Minnesota. Home advantage counts – a lot – for a team that is now 37-7 on their own floor this season. The Nuggets have still to shake off the tag that they’re a regular season wonder following recent playoff losses that included a 4-0 sweep to the Suns in 2021.

Jamal Murray averaged 25.3 points, 6.8 assists and 6.0 during the first four games of the opening round. Nikola Jokic will be a tough cover. If not now, then when, for the Game 1 hosts?

Since the moment they acquired Kevin Durant, Phoenix has felt like a wild card. Disrespectful perhaps for a core that went to the NBA Finals two seasons ago, but adding the one-time MVP can be a blessing and a curse. He is dominant, but also dominates, which has required a rapid adjustment.

Despite their lack of depth and consistent three-point shooting, the Suns still pushed past the LA Clippers with Devon Booker heading the NBA in scoring this post-season at 37.2 ppg.

This should be an offensive showcase, from both teams, with Phoenix requiring big minutes and points from their starters. Does Durant elevate them enough now though? It will be fun finding out with his team remaining 2.36 favourites to come out of the West, despite Denver’s consistency.

Series forecast: Denver in 7 games

Game 1 Prediction: Over 226.5 points @ 2.26

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

Tipoff: 6pm Sunday BST (Sky Sports Arena)

Remember the no-holds-barred duels between the Knicks and Heat of 20 years ago? Something to recall when these two familiar foes reunite following their respective upsets of higher seeds in the opening round.

And, having created what may appear to be the greatest shock as a play-in side KO-ing a number one overall seed, can the Miami Heat break the odds for a second time by taking out the New York Knicks?

Jimmy Butler stole the show in Miami’s demolition of the Milwaukee Bucks whose surprise exit belied their status as title favourites. New York’s wings will be on their guard against him although Julius Randle’s ankle is again a concern as a counterweight to Bam Adebayo.

The Heat, at 2.64 to steal Game 1, lost the regular season series to the Knicks 3-1 but twice erased double-digit leads to vanquish Milwaukee and underline their resilience. Their Sunday hosts have under-rated talent too with a defence that corralled Cleveland to 94.2 points per contest in round one.

New York is best value at -5 at 2.08. And if they can limit Butler to below 25 points per in the series, they’ve a shot at making the East Finals for the first time since 2000.

Series forecast: New York in 6 games

Game 1 Prediction: Over 208.5 points @ 2.34

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

Tipoff: 1.30am Tuesday BST

With Milwaukee’s unexpected derailment, the Celtics have inherited the shortest NBA Championship odds at 3.15, with the markets giving them a 75% chance of taking Game 1 against the Sixers.

It’s a tactical duel – Joel Embiid may be the dominant figure but in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, Boston has two stars who will be tough covers for the Sixers.

Philly held Brooklyn below 101 points in every leg of their 4-0 sweep whereas the Cs had to rely on their offense to get past the Hawks. It is worth looking Under 212.5 points at 2.22, given that two of the previous meetings fell below 205.

The Cs took the regular season series 3-1 and, although they’re deservedly favoured, Embiid – even in a leg brace – will be hot to handle.

Series forecast: Boston in 6 games

Game 1 Prediction: Boston Celtics and Under 214.5 points @ 2.68