NBA Conference Semi-Final Tips May 11

The Boston Celtics must find another gear to stop Philadelphia from ending their NBA title hopes, while it’s win-or-bust for the Phoenix Suns, New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors.

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

Tipoff: 12.30am Friday BST (Sky Sports Main Event)

76ers lead 3-2. For so long the favourites in the NBA title betting, the Celtics have lengthened to 5.8 on the back of one, potentially catastrophic, defeat. An awful display on their own court in Game 5 means Boston is staring elimination in the face on Thursday night. The Sixers, with home advantage, are primed to close out and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals at their old rivals’ expense.

If defence wins NBA Championships and star power conquers all, the current odds of 4.4 on Philly to reign supreme could yet be a steal. In Joel Embiid, the 76ers have the best player in this series with 30 points in each of the past three duels.

Although Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both averaging over 25 points, they have had too little help. The Cs are 1.8 to level and force a Game 7 but there’s no doubt that their team lacks momentum. Their two wins came when holding Philadelphia below 102.5 points. It will likely need that degree of fortitude once again when, so far, Boston has only scored above 115 once in regulation.

The green machine will need to run and push the pace but then they still hurtle toward Embiid. The MVP has lived up to that billing. The Sixers, available at -1 on the handicap at 2.24, can underline their true value.

Game 6 Prediction: Over 215 points @ 2.16

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

Tipoff: 3am Friday BST

Nuggets lead 3-2. A NBA Western Conference semi-final series that has gone with serve on home court now leaves the Suns needing to win out to fight one more day against the Nuggets. Surely Denver – now the favourites with betting markets for the NBA Championship at 3.95 – will pull out one on the road eventually?

I stand behind our season-long belief that Denver is more than just a one-venue pony. And that their odds of 2.32 to finish this series in Six are a steal.

Their defence in the 118-102 drubbing in Game 5 was improved. Devin Booker was controlled. Their bench was better and more threes were earned. Mike Malone’s plan worked ably.

Phoenix captured its two previous home games by an average of six but Denver’s victories have been on an average of 14.6. Nikola Jokic, the walking treble-double, has been impossible to stop. With Chris Paul confirmed as out, the additional potential absence of Deandre Ayton could be a hammer blow.

The Suns know that a Game 7 triumph in the NBA’s toughest venue may be a tall order. They might not get that opportunity.

Game 6 Prediction: Nuggets to win by 6-10 @ 6

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

Tipoff: 12.30am Saturday BST (Sky Sports Main Event)

Heat lead 3-2. It required 38 points from Jalen Brunson and huge second and third quarters for the Knicks to earn a 112-103 victory in Game 5 that avoided the gloom of an exit from the NBA Playoffs.

Back now to Miami for Game 6 where the markets give the Heat a 67% chance of advancing into the NBA Eastern Conference Finals at odds of 1.5. It seems certain that it will be another grinder. Over one clash in this series has been decided by more than nine points. None have produced over 216 combined points but four have gone over 209 – a mark backable at 1.9.

Game 6 Prediction: Heat -6 @ 2.06

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

Tipoff: 3am Saturday BST

Lakers lead 3-2. The reigning champions also staved off elimination in Game 5 but now they need to do it all again, this time in LA. It has been an unpredictable series, with the Lakers 1.72 to close out on Friday. Yet the Warriors’ retain the defensive chops that earned a title last June, winning every quarter on Wednesday.

There is also a touch of emotional desperation at play. Golden State’s championship core has enjoyed repeated runs to the Finals in years when it has been intact. The whole gang's here, so to come up short may preempt a rebuild of sorts.

The LA Lakers took their previous home games in this series by 20 and 3 points respectively. Given the Warriors’ road woes all season, but strength at home, this is a chance LeBron James and his supporting cast cannot let slip.

Game 6 Prediction: Under 221.5 points @ 2.04