NBA Betting Tips: Three selections ahead of the new season

The new NBA season gets underway this week and once again 30 teams will battle it out for the Larry O’Brien trophy. The Boston Celtics won a record-breaking 18th title back in June and will be desperate to become the first team since the Golden State Warriors in 2018 to retain their title. 

Ahead of the season, I am going to give my selection for the title, look at an outsider who could shock, and a pick from the MVP market.

To win it all

Oklahoma City Thunder - 7.4

I have moved away from the Celtics, they were by far and away the best team in the league last season but I think this year will be different and at 3.95 they look too short to me.

The Thunder on the other hand, look good value at 7.4. They went 57 and 25 to finish top of the Western Conference last season only to be eliminated by Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in the Conference semifinals - this year will be different though. Rebounding was OKC’s biggest issue last season in both the regular season and in their loss to Dallas. GM Sam Presti addressed this issue by bringing in one of the best rebounders in the NBA last season, Isaiah Hartenstein.

While Hartenstein adds size and an ability to clean the glass, the addition of Alex Caruso from the Chicago Bulls adds depth and perimeter defence. The 2020 NBA Champion is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and can also knock it down from three. Adding these two to an already great team has been a masterstroke.

While I could easily talk about the talent of Shai Gilgous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jaylen Williams, one of the things that makes OKC so easy to back is their cap space and haul of draft picks ready to trade. 

Superstars being unhappy is not uncommon in the NBA and mid-season moves are always on the cards. If that happens this year the Thunder have the space to add some incredible firepower to their roster. A move like that would turn them into title favourites in an instant. Given the Celtics injury, age and ownership concerns, I think the Thunder are your best bet at 7.2.

Big priced fancy

Memphis Grizzlies - 38

The Grizz went 27 and 55 last season and finished 13th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference. So why do I think they’ve got a decent chance of going deep in the playoffs? Ja Morant is the reason. 

Two years ago Morant was ready to become the face of the league but injury and then some less-than-responsible social media activity has stalled his career. But this year he is back and I think he will be out to show the NBA exactly what they have been missing.

When Morant is playing well the Grizzlies are proven to be a good team, finishing second in the conference in both 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. Since then they have also added the experience of Marcus Smart from Boston and picked up one of the most exciting prospects in the most recent draft in Zach Edey.

At 38.0, they look like a big price.

Most Valuable Player

Luka Doncic - 4.3

This time, I am going to side with the favourite and back Luka Doncic to win his first MVP award. 

One of the important things to remember when betting on the MVP award is that it is voted on by journalists rather than being a stats-based decision. That means that finding a player with the right narrative is always important.

There can be little doubt that Doncic has had one of the best starts to a career of any star ever. His career points per game average of 28.7 is third all time trailing behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Michael Jordan. He dragged his Dallas team to the finals last season and has been a consistent playoff performer taking his team to the conference finals in 2022. Therefore, voters might see it as time to give Doncic his flowers.

What's more, aged 25, he is only getting better. He led the league in scoring with a career-high average of 33.9 points per game last term and was also second in the league in assists per game with 9.8. 

His nearest challenger in the market is three-time MVP Nikola Jokic who despite being the best player in the world, will find it difficult to win the award for the fourth time in five years due to voter fatigue. 

Thanks to some off-season additions, the Mavericks look like they will have a strong regular season which is another important factor to consider when looking at this award. Doncic looks like a solid play at 4.3.