NBA Betting Tips: Who will get their hands on the Larry O'Brien Trophy?
By Alex Brinton
Latest NBA Odds19 April 2024
The gruelling 82-game NBA regular season is over and it is time for the play-offs. Over the next two months, 16 teams will be whittled down to just two before one of them is crowned champions at the end of the finals.
Play-off basketball sees teams go head-to-head night after night in a best-of-seven series format. It is incredibly different to the regular season as teams change their tactics on a nightly basis to defend a team’s strengths and expose their weaknesses.
For all the brilliance of the regular season, this is what plays are judged on.
The four favourites
Boston Celtics @ 2.68
The Celtics have been the best team throughout the season and enter the play-offs as the favourite. Their record of 64 wins and 18 losses, is the best in the league by seven games. They have been one of the best teams in the NBA for the past few seasons making the Finals in 2022 and Conference Finals in 2018, 2020 and 2023. However, the two off-season moves which saw them add Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to an already stacked roster.
Jayson Tatum is their star man and if they are to bring home a first NBA championship in 16 years he will be pivotal. The 26-year-old is approaching his peak as an NBA player and has had a great season. He has averaged 26 points per game (ppg) which is the fourth-best of any player in a similar position. He is also shooting 47% from behind the three-point line.
If you are looking at basic stats, this team looks set to win the title. They boast the fifth-best point differential of all time with 11.4, the four above them all went on to win the title. Among this season’s teams they rank in the top five in each of the key metrics, points, rebounds, defence and blocks.
The one concern for fans is the way they close games. The NBA defines clutch as, “the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the game is within five points.” In clutch the Celtics rank fourth in winning percentage but only 15th in field goals made and 13th in field goal percentage. If they are going to come unstuck anywhere it is likely to be here.
Denver Nuggets @ 4.20
The Nuggets are the reigning champions and are led by MVP-elect Nikola Jokic. Before we go any further, it is worth noting that there hasn’t been a back-to-back NBA champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2018.
The Nuggets however have looked strong all year and have for the most part remained healthy. In Jokic, they also have not only the best player in the world but a player who is fast moving up the ladder in terms of the all-time greats. He looks set to win his third MVP, a feat only managed by eight players in the history of the game. Across the league this season, he ranks tenth in ppg, fourth in rebounds per game (rpg), third in assists per game (apg) and tenth in field goal percentage.
Despite having the joint-best record in the Western Conference, they still have a better regular season record than they did last season at 57-25. Where the Celtics struggle in clutch games, the Nuggets thrive. They rank third in win percentage but first in field goal percentage. These metrics are vitally important in play-off basketball as the likelihood of close games increases. I backed them at the start of the season at odds of 6.4 and I see no reason to not back them again.
Dallas Mavericks @ 16.00
The Dallas Mavericks carry the best form into the play-offs of any team, over the last 15 games they have won 12 and lost three. Luka Doncic is their star man, he is the leading scorer in the league averaging 33.9 ppg and 9.8 apg. The 25-year-old has been ably supported by former champion Kyrie Irving who has quietly had his best season since he was in Cleveland.
Their defence has been a concern since Irving joined the team last season, but they appear to have sorted that out. Over the same 15-game period they have the second best defence in the league allowing just 39.9 field goals per game and opposition teams have shot at just 44.7%.
Doncic is a proven play-off performer having guided his team to the Western Conference Finals back in 2021 largely on his own back. Now he has the offensive weapon of Kyrie Irving alongside him, they will be a real contender in this season’s postseason. They face fourth-favourite the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round, so the winner of that series will have their odds slashed.
Los Angeles Clippers @ 16.50
The Clippers have had an interesting season to say the least. To start with they brought in James Harden in a move that looked initially very questionable given the star’s age and history of disrupting teams. Then combined with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George they went on the best run in the NBA through December and January with a record of 23-5.
Since the All-Star break they have been incredibly disappointing though with a record of just 15-14. It will be interesting to see if they can dial it back up to the levels they found earlier on in the season. They certainly have the experienced players to make it possible but so often in sport these things aren’t as easy as turning a tap on.
If they are going to do well a lot of the burden will sit with Kawhi Leonard the two-time champion and two-time finals MVP has struggled with injuries and the fitness question will be one that hangs over this team as far as they go. When fit Leonard has delivered some great performances and at his peak has looked back to his best having an effect on both ends of the floor.
For me there are two many doubts to be able to confidently back this team.
Back the Denver Nuggets @ 4.20
First Round Match-Ups
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics vs TBD
New York Knicks @ 1.88 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 1.88
Orlando Magic @ 2.54 vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 1.48
Milwaukee Bucks @ 1.65 vs Indiana Pacers @ 1.99
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder vs TBD
Denver Nuggets @ 1.24 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3.35
Minnesota Timberwolves @ 1.91 vs Phoenix Suns @ 1.81