NBA Ante-Post Tips: The Nuggets and Bucks look primed to sprint ahead

The Boston Celtics are current favourites to win the NBA Championship title, but high-profile acquisitions elsewhere have thrown a grenade into the mix and blown the outright market wide open.

If splashing out on superstars guaranteed NBA championships, the Brooklyn Nets would have needed to build a bigger roof to host all the celebratory banners. Alas, it requires both dollars and sense to secure titles – other X-factors come into play too. Foremost good health, with the two teams left standing in June so often benefiting from a lack of injuries and the priceless but unbuyable commodity of continuity. 

And although the NBA Championship odds were given a thorough shakedown following a frenetic spell of trading deadline activity, one constant has survived the radical rerouting of some of basketball’s upper classes. This is one of the most unpredictable campaigns in recent memory.

Good teams have found consistency but also slumps. As we near the All Star break, just three wins separate first and fourth in the Eastern Conference. And although odds of 4.2 on the Denver Nuggets topping the Western Conference look solid with a little separation from the chasing pack, the markets have decreed they will not prevail. Unwisely, I believe. Beneath, a mere five games sit between the Sacramento Kings in third and the Oklahoma City Thunder in 12th – even the Los Angeles Lakers are within touching distance just below.

Lob into the mix two A-Listers exiled from Brooklyn onto new teams and it has all the ingredients of a drama that will run and run towards the NBA Playoffs, and then onward. 

But let’s break down some of the race and try to assess who might be a good bet and who is a likely dud. Let’s call them the Super Seven. The teams that have all the components to make a run at this wide-open championship, but which also pass the eye test. The intangible feeling that says: ‘They’re ready’. 

Hard to quantify. Which is why one current high-flier doesn’t beat the cut, and one current .500 crew that is sitting less-than-prettily outside the playoff places is included in my inner circle. Even at odds of 34, I don’t offer up the smallest prayer for the Lakers!

NBA Western Conference tips 

Amid the Wild West, the major market shift over the past ten days has come for the Phoenix Suns - shortened from a double-figure price to just 5.8, second only to the Celtics. The Kevin Durant effect was real. Quite the transformation for a team that was three games below .500 less than a month ago but has rediscovered its mojo with a 10-3 stretch that included a beatdown of Boston. 

And Durant’s not even suited up yet, which is part of the reason for not doubling down. There is a health question, though, as the future Hall of Famer hasn’t played close to a full schedule in three years. It’s a similar story for fellow vet Chris Paul. Devin Booker, even as a young pup, has only suited up 31 times this term. When at full strength, the Suns may be scary but we are yet to properly find out. 

Much of that also applies to the LA Clippers. According to the market, they have an 8% shot at the championship. All while Kawhi Leonard and Paul George yo-yo off the treatment table. The Clips have only one winning streak of more than three games this season, but two losing runs of four or more. They are 21-11 when Leonard is available, but that’s just not enough. They have a shot but remain underpriced.

Kevin Durant: traded from the Brooklyn Nets to the Phoenix Suns

So are the Memphis Grizzlies at 20 and Dallas Mavericks at 19. So much so that they don’t make our Significant Septet. The Grizz are 16-16 against their own conference, which is not good enough, while the Mavs’ hopes lie with Kyrie. Surely, this will not be either’s year.

Logic decrees it cannot be the Golden State Warriors’ turn again either. Successive losses have returned the champs to breakeven. They’re priced at 23 for a defence of their title, and still you have Steph Curry and Klay Thompson splashing once again and depth elsewhere. The door is ajar. Just.

For the Denver Nuggets, there was the vibe that staying put at the trade deadline was somehow a loss. Yet they are under-appreciated at 9.2 for the championship. Nikola Jokic is favoured for an MVP three-peat at 1.51 and, although I’m singing the praises of Joel Embiid as a worthy punt at 3.55, the Serb has shouldered a load and guided the Nuggets towards quiet and efficient consistency.

That’s what playoff runs are made of, and title dreams are built on. Especially when they are 28-11 against the Best of the West. 

NBA Eastern Conference tips

That leaves three vacancies in our Magnificent Seven from the East. Boston, with the best points differential of +6.2, have ground out six wins from their last seven games and continue to roll short-handed. Depth and dynamism work in unison. Last season’s beaten NBA Finalists have lost only eight times to rivals with .500+ records. It’s why the markets give them a 22% chance of going one better than 2022. It may hang on the health of their leading lights, though. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have profited from good fortune in that area to win 20 of their last 25 games. Only twice in that spell have the Sixers won by over 12 points - they are masters of the grind. Odds of 17 to rule the NBA seem too big.

When the Milwaukee Bucks are good, they are really good. 32-0 when leading an opponent in field goal percentage, and an East-best 23-5 at home following a ten-game winning streak, a home clash with Boston on Wednesday will be a bellwether for how good they have become – even with Khris Middleton working his way back to his peak.

At 6.6 to regain their NBA crown, they are not exactly a steal. But at 3.15 for the East, it may be the best time to back the Bucks for a concerted assault. 

Prediction: The NBA Finals race

At 9.2 for the championship, Denver is under-valued, under-appreciated and overpriced. With no guarantees over Durant’s health - or his fit within the team - the Nuggets have a real opportunity to ascend the mountain.

While the Bucks employ Giannis Antetokounmpo, there is a worthy counter. It would be a gripping Finals match-up of aesthetically agreeable styles. There is a long way to go before we even reach the post-season but the portents for both to square off look promising. The edge, I believe, is in the Nuggets’ court.

NBA Ante-Post Tips

Championship winners: Denver Nuggets @ 9.2
Most Valuable Player: Joel Embiid @ 3.5
Coach of the Year: Mike Brown @ 2.96
Most Improved Player: Lauri Markkanen @ 1.99