Monday’s MLB Tips: Logan Webb can shut down slumping Reds

Monday night offers up 10 games to get stuck into and there is plenty of value on offer around the big leagues. Baseball expert Sam Cox pinpoints his three best bets.

Reds v Giants

First pitch: 12.05am Tuesday

The San Francisco Giants are on a five-game winning streak either side of the break after a weekend sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gabe Kapler now hands the ball to his ace, with Logan Webb coming off the first complete game shutout of his career.

San Francisco owns the second-best record across the entire Majors since the start of May. Meanwhile Cincinnati, who enjoyed their own surprise surge to contention, were brought back down to earth by their divisional rivals and lost five of their last six to the Brewers. The Reds were shutout three times in that span.

It’s no surprise the Reds are underdogs here. Brandon Williamson is on the hill for the home team, carrying a 5.68 xERA despite some recent signs of improvement. Webb, in contrast, is one of the National League’s best pitchers and possesses a 3.14 ERA. 

Both teams have solid bullpens, but it’s a non-contest between the starters. I’m backing San Francisco to take an early lead behind Webb and win this by a few runs. 

Prediction: Giants -1 @ 1.82

Cardinals v Marlins

First pitch: 12.45am Tuesday

After being swept by the Baltimore Orioles, the Miami Marlins are looking to get back on track against the St Louis Cardinals. Miami has Jesus Luzardo on the mound, matching up with veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas.

Mikolas has not allowed a run in his last two outings, but he conceded four earned over 6.1 frames against these Marlins earlier this month. While some of his underlying metrics have trended in the right direction, his difficulty getting swing and misses (11th percentile K%, 2nd percentile whiff rate) is an issue against a high-contact offence like Miami’s. 

Luzardo has been excellent all year, and he’s conceded just four runs over his last five starts. Miami has gone 13-6 in Luzardo’s starts this season. Their offence has overachieved their contact metrics this season, but the Marlins have the pitching to grind out wins. They don’t need to blow Mikolas out of the game.

While the Marlins have an above-average bullpen, the Cardinals’ relief corps is one of the worst in the league over the last couple of months. Miami is clearly the stronger of the two teams here and has the advantage in the pitching matchup. 

Prediction: Marlins to win @ 2.02

Rangers v Rays

First pitch: 1.05am Tuesday

Shane McClanahan and Dane Dunning have each massively overperformed their underlying metrics this season. 

Dunning’s xERA is towards five, while his ERA is only 2.84. McClanahan returns from the injured list after an up-and-down June – his xERA is up at 3.98. If the two starters have had to ride some luck so far this season, Monday might be when that comes to an end. These are two of three best offences in wRC+. 

The Rays might not have played their best baseball in July, but their offence should be able to get to Dunning. These Rangers are fifth in barrel rate – McClanahan is well-below league average in barrels allowed. 

Only the Dodgers have hit the over more frequently than these two teams. At 2.02, over nine total runs looks like great value. 

Prediction: Over nine total runs @ 2.02

Monday’s MLB Tips

Reds v Giants: Giants -1 @ 1.82
Cardinals v Marlins: Marlins to win @ 2.02
Rangers v Rays: Over nine total runs @ 2.02